\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event: 1) the company released] the annual report of 2021 and realized an operating revenue of 30.65 billion yuan, an increase of 101.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 10.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 206.5%. The net operating cash flow was 8.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.3%. 2) The first quarter report of 2022 was released, and the operating revenue was 8.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%.
Covid-19 vaccine thickened the company’s performance in 21 years, and 22q1 HPV vaccine was rapidly released. 1) By quarter, the company’s revenue of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in a single quarter was 39.3 / 92.5 / 86.6 / 8.82 billion yuan (+ 49% / + 112% / + 113% / + 113%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 9.4/45.5/29.1/1.77 billion yuan (+ 81.7% / + 360.7% / + 199% / + 119.4%). 21q4 revenue still maintained a rapid growth, mainly due to covid-19 vaccine sales superimposed on HPV vaccine continued to increase in volume, and the profit side slowed down compared with 21q2 and 21q3, mainly due to the lower price of covid-19 vaccine. The rapid growth of 22q1 is mainly due to the rapid and large-scale production of HPV vaccine. 2) From the perspective of the company’s gross profit margin of 19% in 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was mainly driven by the increase of vid-1%. The sales expense rate is 6% (- 1.9pp), which is mainly due to the gradual expansion of the company’s sales volume and the embodiment of scale effect. The rate of administrative expenses is 1% (- 0.4pp), the rate of R & D expenses is 1.8% (- 0.2pp), and the rate of financial expenses is + 0.1% (- 0.8pp), which remains stable. Based on the above factors, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 33.3% (+ 11.6pp), and its profitability increased significantly.
The accelerated volume of HPV vaccine drives the rapid growth of the company’s traditional vaccine business. In terms of products, in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 20.9 billion yuan (+ 50%) from agency products, accounting for 68%, and revenue of 9.7 billion yuan (+ 708%) from independent products, accounting for 32%. Major covid-19 vaccines contribute major increments. 2022q1 company approved and issued 2.11 million HPV vaccines (+ 70%) on behalf of Mosha East; The nine valent HPV vaccine was approved and issued 4.83 million (+ 280%); 3.24 million pentavalent rotavirus vaccines (+ 220%) and 48 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) valent pneumonia vaccines (+ 100%) were approved and issued. At present, the overall supply of HPV vaccine in China is still in short supply, and the penetration rate is still low. The company’s products have more protective serotypes. Compared with domestic bivalent HPV vaccine, it has obvious advantages in the first and second tier cities. It is expected that the overall sales volume is expected to be more than 25 million in 2022. At present, the domestic tetravalent / nine valent HPV vaccine is still in the clinical stage and is expected to be listed successively after 2025, which has little impact on the competitive pattern of the company.
EC + micro card tuberculosis matrix mainly focuses on the student physical examination market and is expected to increase rapidly. The company’s global first EC diagnostic reagent + micro card vaccine has won the bid in a large number of provinces in China (27 provinces in Yichang and 25 provinces in Yichang). At present, the market space for tuberculosis control in China is still huge. In early 2019, the Ministry of education and the Health Commission issued the recommended health industry standard “guidelines for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in general colleges and universities”, in which tuberculosis screening is regarded as a mandatory item for the physical examination of freshmen. Although the current detection method is still based on tuberculin skin test, considering its high false positive rate, we believe that EC diagnostic reagent is expected to become the mainstream means of tuberculosis screening. According to the grassroots research data, the positive rate of tuberculosis in China passing the company’s Yika reagent screening is about 10% ~ 20%. At the same time, the company actively promotes the transformation and sales of micro card vaccine among the positive population. It is expected that the tuberculosis product matrix is expected to achieve an income of about 800 million yuan in 22 years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Regardless of the sales increment of covid-19 vaccine, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 7.3 billion yuan, 11.1 billion yuan and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 21, 14 and 12 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 vaccine volume is less than expected, the risk of research and development failure and the risk of product price reduction.
