\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released] the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 2.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%.
The performance of Jinsai pharmaceutical industry continued to grow rapidly. Kinsay pharmaceutical achieved an operating revenue of 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic led to the slowdown of growth hormone growth. With the elimination of the epidemic, growth hormone sales rebounded rapidly. At the same time, the company adjusted its marketing strategy. Growth hormone sales recovered rapidly in the second half of 2020. In 2021, growth hormone still maintained rapid growth. At present, the company continues to promote sales reform and improve the sales scale of growth hormone in the grass-roots market. With the promotion of sales reform, the grass-roots market is expected to open new space for growth hormone. At the same time, the company increases the promotion in the adult field, and the revenue contribution is expected to be gradually reflected and become a new growth point.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) dragged down the performance, and the herpes zoster vaccine is worth looking forward to. 2022q1 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved an operating revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.3%, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%. In the first quarter of 2022, due to the impact of the epidemic in Changchun and across the country, the revenue and profit of Baike decreased year-on-year. It is expected to start to grow in the second quarter of 2022. The new product nasal spray influenza vaccine is the first live attenuated nasal spray influenza vaccine in China. It is easy to be immunized on a large scale and has significant differentiation advantages. It is expected to become an effective supplement to the tetravalent influenza vaccine. It is expected that the nasal spray influenza vaccine will contribute significant performance increment to the company. Herpes zoster vaccine is in a big competition stage, and it is expected to become a kind of herpes zoster vaccine in the future.
The real estate and Chinese patent medicine businesses grew steadily and are expected to continue to contribute to stable cash flow. High tech real estate achieved an operating revenue of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 503.4%, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 485.2%. Huakang pharmaceutical achieved an operating revenue of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net profit of 09 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%. Due to the small number of projects confirmed in the same period last year and the low base, the real estate business ushered in a substantial growth this year. The company's proprietary Chinese medicine business maintained a stable operation and is expected to contribute to stable cash flow in the future.
Profit forecast and rating. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.04 billion yuan, 6.35 billion yuan and 7.57 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 12.46 yuan, 15.69 yuan and 18.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price valuation of 12 times, 9 times and 8 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk that the volume of growth hormone is less than expected; Risk that the progress of products under development is less than expected.
