\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 77 Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 2.289180/96 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.76% / 131.03% / 70.31%, in line with the forecast, and the revenue / net profit still decreased by 15% / 20% compared with 2019. 21q4's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 715 / 0.29 / - 27 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 52.29% / - 29.07% / - 185.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 4% / 43% / - compared with 19q4. The deduction of non attributable loss in Q4 was mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin, the increase of sales expense rate and investment loss. 22q1 company's income / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company were RMB 612 million / 0.47 million / 13 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.56% / 2.78% / - 40.63%. The net profit mainly came from government subsidies. Distribute cash dividend of 1.05 yuan for every 10 shares.
Analysis and judgment:
In the second half of the year, 2b accelerated growth, and 22q1 increased high on the basis of low base. In 2021, the 2B revenue of the company was 1.464 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24%, an increase of 11% compared with 19 years. 2B revenue accelerated significantly in the second half of the year (the 2B revenue in the first / second half of the year was 640 / 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3% / 48% respectively). In terms of production capacity, the company's total production capacity was 26.72 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, but the production capacity utilization rate was affected by the production of new production capacity, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.29 PCT to 84.91% (the proportion of China / overseas production capacity was 40% / 60% respectively, and the production capacity utilization rate was 88.37% / 82.58% respectively). 22q1 we estimate that 2B will increase by 40-50% on the basis of low base, and Indonesia will expand its production and double the original 120 by the end of March.
2C has not recovered to the pre epidemic level, with a high increase of 90 points and a sharp decline in Xiaomi channel. 2C business revenue was 756 million yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year, down 41% from 19 years. Among them, the revenue of online (90 brands) / distribution channel (Xiaomi channel) was 347 / 409 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63% / - 21% and 62% / - 62% compared with 19 years. We analyze that the decline of Xiaomi channel is mainly due to the fact that Xiaomi has not been overseas for 21 years and China has taken the initiative to reduce low-cost SKUs. In the first and second half of the year, the decline of Xiaomi channel accelerated in the second half of the year, and the revenue in the first / second half of the year was 177 / 232 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% / 25%; 90 points: the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year, and the revenue in the first / second half of the year was 155 / 192 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 90% / 47%. 22q1 we estimate 2C single digit growth, mainly from 90 overseas businesses, while Xiaomi is flat with 90 Chinese businesses.
The decline in gross profit margin was mainly affected by the decline in gross profit margin of 2B and Xiaomi, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 still fell year-on-year. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 26.58%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.90pct and 1.2pct compared with 19 years. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin of 2B / 2C in 2021 was 25.97% / 28.28% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -3.24/0.44pct. We analyzed that the decline of gross profit margin of 2B end was mainly affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, capacity utilization, logistics and exchange rate; The increase of 2C end gross profit margin mainly comes from the price increase of 90 points and the increase of the proportion of new products with high gross profit. 22q1 gross profit margin was 25.04%, down 1.99pct year-on-year. The net interest rate of the company in 21 years was 7.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.12pct and a decrease of 1.25pct compared with 19 years. The year-on-year increase in net interest rate was mainly due to the improvement of expense rate and the increase of other income and investment income. In 2021, the rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 11.76% / 10.18% / 2.75% / 1.35% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.65 / - 2.04 / - 0.99/0.07pct, and the year-on-year increase of 24% of financial expenses was mainly due to the increase of interest expenses.
Operating cash flow decreased and inventories increased. The net cash flow generated from the company's operating activities in the past 21 years was 47.43 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65%, mainly due to the company's purchase and preparation in advance in response to the rise in the price of materials and the obstruction of overseas logistics affected by the epidemic. The company's inventory was 533 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%.
Investment advice
Our analysis: (1) 2B business is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% in the future, and the company's newly signed customers are expected to grow in large quantities in 23 years; 120 production lines in Indonesia phase II are expected to climb in the second half of the year; (2) The business is expected to reduce losses in Q2 and 2C. Considering the repeated epidemic, the income of 22 / 23 was reduced from 3.24/4.087 billion yuan to 2.592/3.103 billion yuan, the new 24-year income was 3.69 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother in 22 / 23 was reduced from 342 / 450 million yuan to 201 / 272 million yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the mother was 346 million yuan, the corresponding EPS in 22 / 23 was reduced from 1.43/1.88 yuan to 0.84/1.13 yuan, the new 24-year EPS was 1.44 yuan, the closing price on April 28, 2022 was 13.76 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 16 / 12 / 10x respectively, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of epidemic development; Fluctuations in raw material prices and rising labor costs; Exchange rate fluctuations; Capacity expansion is less than expected; Systemic risk.
