\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 733 Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) )
Performance review
On April 27, the company released the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 21a, the company achieved a revenue of 6.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.8%, deducting 960 million yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of + 48.4%; 1q22 achieved a revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 146 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 47.8%.
Business analysis
The capacity of 21a climbed smoothly, and the high energy cost of 4q put pressure on the profit per ton. The new production capacity climbed smoothly. The sales volume of 21a was 700000 tons (year-on-year + 16%), of which the sales volume of 2H was + 1%, and the revenue of daily consumption / food, medical treatment / business communication and printing materials / tobacco supporting business was 2.59/8.4/790 billion yuan, year-on-year + 41.6% / + 16.8% / + 7.1% / + 8.2%. From the perspective of profitability, the gross profit margin of 21a is 20% (-0.47pct), and the net profit margin is 16.9% (+ 2.1pct); It is estimated that the gross profit of 3q / 4q ton is 1760 / 960 yuan / ton, and the net interest rate is 6.8% (year-on-year - 8pct, month on month - 12.8pct), which is mainly due to the high cost of coal, steam and other energy since the second half of the year, and the average price of 3q / 4q in Qinhuangdao Power coal market is 31% / 18% month on month respectively; 21a sales / Management & R & D / financial expense ratio increased from -0.05 / - 0.06 / - 1.1pct to 0.36% / 4.5% / 0.34% year-on-year respectively.
1q22: price increases have been steadily implemented and profits have been repaired month on month. 1q22's revenue increased by + 10% year-on-year. Under the high base, it grew steadily, with a gross profit margin of 11.54% (- 10.9pct, unchanged month on month). It is estimated that the gross profit per ton is 1075 yuan / ton (month on month + 115 yuan / ton), the management & R & D / financial expense ratio is - 1.4 / + 0.3pct year-on-year respectively, and the net interest rate is 8.7% (year-on-year -9.7pct, month on month + 1.89pct).
The growth momentum is sufficient, and the integration of forest, pulp and paper improves the strategic advantage. By providing "paper-based solutions", the company improves customer stickiness and unit customer value. With the production capacity of 1 million tons of pulp and paper in Guangxi and 1.6 million tons in Hubei, the company will gradually transform into an integrated enterprise of forest / grass, pulp and paper, and its competitiveness and profit stability will be further strengthened.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the sufficient growth momentum of the company in the future and the gradual improvement of the layout of the upstream industrial chain, we expect the company's EPS to be 1.48, 1.86 and 2.15 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 24, 19 and 17 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The progress of new production capacity is not up to expectations; The risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The cumulative equity pledge ratio of major shareholders was 25.56%.
