\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 41.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.56%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%, and a deduction of non net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of RMB 13.128 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.07%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 696 million, a year-on-year increase of 80.91%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 696 million, a year-on-year increase of 95.87%.
At the same time, the company announced the first quarterly report of 2022. In 22q1, the revenue was 11.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.66%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 347 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and the non net profit deducted was 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.43%..
The business volume increased by 30% over the same period, and the market share increased steadily: in 2021, the company completed 18.402 billion express business, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, which was 0.2pct higher than the average growth rate of the industry; The market share reached 17%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.02pct, ranking second in the industry. In addition, according to the calculation of 1-3 menstrual business data, 22q1 company completed business volume of 4.31 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 19.62%, exceeding the industry average growth rate of 9.2pct, accounting for 17.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.36pct. With the steady growth of online shopping, e-mail delivery and other businesses in rural areas, it is expected to continue to increase the penetration of online shopping, e-mail delivery and other businesses, and continue to increase.
Single ticket revenue continued to improve: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 41.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.56%. The overall single ticket revenue was 2.27 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.26%, which was significantly lower than the decrease in the same period in 2021 (30.95%). Quarterly, the single ticket revenue of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 express was 2.2 yuan, 2.02 yuan, 2.08 yuan and 2.3 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of - 19%, - 7.14%, 0.84% and 2%. It can be seen that under the strict supervision of industrial policies, the single ticket price of express continued to rise. In addition, the single ticket revenue of 22q1 express increased by 15% year-on-year to 2.53 yuan, 10% month on month, and the revenue increased by 39% year-on-year. The performance is expected to continue to repair.
The gross profit margin improved month on month, and the expense rate needs to be optimized: in 2021, the company continued to increase its continuous investment in core assets such as land, hub transfer center, automation equipment, transportation capacity improvement and digital information construction. In 2021, the company's capital expenditure was 9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48%, including the purchase of land and transfer center of about 6.7 billion yuan. Under the influence of factors such as rising fuel prices, we continued to promote fine management. The operating cost of single ticket decreased by 3.79% to 2.06 yuan year-on-year, of which the transit cost of single ticket decreased by 6.84% to 0.82 yuan year-on-year, which is at the leading level in the industry. The gross profit margin decreased by 0.44pct to 9.05% year-on-year. Quarterly, the gross profit margins of 21q1-22q1 were 10.17%, 8.93%, 7.65%, 9.55% and 10.54% respectively. In terms of expenses, in 2021, the comprehensive expense rate increased by 1PCT to 5.43% year-on-year, of which the management and financial expense rates increased by 0.51pct and 0.38pct year-on-year.
Profit forecast: under the stricter policy, the price competition in the industry slows down, and the single ticket income continues to improve, which is expected to bring performance repair to the company. Considering that the repeated epidemic situation will lead to the obstruction of logistics and transportation, which will have a great impact on the business volume of 22q2, we slightly reduce the profit forecast. We expect to realize the net profit of 1.863 billion yuan and 2.72 billion yuan in 22 and 23 years, yoy + 26%, + 46%, EPS of 0.64 yuan and 0.94 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of a share price is 23 times and 16 times respectively. We give investment suggestions for interval operation..
Tips: loose online shopping, deterioration of price supervision policies, etc.
