\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
The reserves of coal resources are abundant, and the output has entered a growth period. The company's main business is coal, and the contribution of revenue and gross profit in 2021 is more than 85%. By the end of 2021, the company had coal resources of 27.019 billion tons and proven reserves of 14.255 billion tons, of which the proven reserves of power coal accounted for 90.16%, and the stock resources were rich. In the same year, the company's coal output was 112.74 million tons, second only to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (312.7 million tons) and Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (135.88 million tons) among A-share listed companies. From 2022, the company's new production capacity will be put into operation successively. The first mining face of Haize coal mine with a production capacity of 20 million tons / year has started trial operation, and it is expected to contribute 6 million tons of output increment in 2022; In 2023, Yilan No. 3 coal mine and Weizigou coal mine in Heilongjiang are expected to be put into operation, with equity capacity of 2.4 million tons and 1.2 million tons / year respectively; In 2024, Libi coal mine is expected to be completed, with an incremental equity capacity of 2.04 million tons / year. The company has strong endogenous growth. In addition, the company shares in Zhongtian hechuang, Huajin coking coal and hecaogou coal industry, and shares in coal mine equity, with a production capacity of 14.14 million tons. By the end of 2021, the total approved production capacity of the company's coal mines under production, construction and equity participation was 191.79 million tons / year, and the total equity production capacity was 152.91 million tons / year. We predict that from 2022 to 2024, the growth rate of the company's output will be 9.25%, 6.43% and 4.97% respectively.
The comprehensive coal price center moves upward with strong certainty. In terms of thermal coal, the company's long-term cooperation accounts for more than 80%. Due to the policy guidance, the price of thermal coal is increased, and the benchmark price is increased from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton. Therefore, the price center of thermal coal may move up, and the production and sales volume of thermal coal of the company is large, and the performance is expected to increase. In terms of coking coal, the price of coking coal is expected to rise further, benefiting from the rise in infrastructure demand caused by government investment and the supply gap caused by the Australian coal ban. On the whole, the prices of the two self-produced coals of the company are expected to increase in an all-round way, and the central shift of the comprehensive selling price is highly certain.
Under the high oil price, the prosperity of coal chemical industry is better, and the landing of methanol production capacity will bring scale synergy. By the end of 2021, the total equity production capacity of the company's participation in and holding of coal chemical projects under production and construction was 8.11 million tons / year, including 2.74 million tons / year of polyolefin equity production capacity, 1.73 million tons / year of methanol, 1.75 million tons / year of urea, 360000 tons / year of dilute nitric acid and 400000 tons / year of ammonium nitrate, and 1.13 million tons / year of coke, which has scale advantages. Among them, the company's methanol technology transformation project with an annual output of 1 million tons from syngas was completed and put into operation in 2021, which mainly provides methanol raw materials for the production of olefins in Mengda chemical industry. Under the background of rising methanol prices, the new project is expected to bring cost advantages to the production of polyolefins. In addition, the average spot price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is about $70 / barrel. According to the EIA prediction, the average price will reach $103 and $93 / barrel in 2022 and 2023. The oil price is rising and is expected to stabilize at a high level. The coal chemical industry outlook continues to improve, and the company's chemical product price may rise again.
Investment suggestion: the company's main coal industry is expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price, open the endogenous growth stage, have good growth and predictable performance release. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 25.0422795831.046 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.89/2.11/2.34/share respectively, and PE corresponding to the closing price on April 27, 2022 of 5 / 4 / 4 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of coal and coal chemical products has fallen sharply; The progress of coal mine production is less than expected; Provision for large impairment.
