\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 991 Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) )
Performance review
On April 28, the company issued a performance announcement. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 1.294 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 14.3%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.4%. 22q1 achieved an income of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 23 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 45.3%.
Business analysis
The effect of internal adjustment appeared, and the revenue accelerated month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of 22q4 + 22q1 was 5.9%. 22q1 is still under the pressure of epidemic disturbance, but the trend of improvement is obvious, mainly due to the smooth transmission of price increase in the second half of the year (the average price of green peas / melon seeds / broad beans / comprehensive nuts / other businesses increased by 5% / 6% / 6% / 23% / 5%), and the optimization and reform of the company's own sales team. 21. The growth rate of young pea / melon seed kernel / broad bean was + 6.32% / - 7.59% / - 6.54% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate of the old three slowed down. The comprehensive nuts and bean fruit series containing flavor nuts were + 43.51% year-on-year, and the other series containing oatmeal and peanut were + 24.53% year-on-year. The proportion of both increased by 7.36 PCT to 39.84%.
22q1, short-term profit margin is significantly optimized. The gross profit margin of 21 years / 21q4 / 22q1 was - 1.2 / + 1.0 / - 4.4pct year-on-year respectively. The rise of palm oil in 21 years affected the profit of about 50 million yuan, and the price increase alleviated the cost pressure. However, the price of 22q1 continued to break through the high point, and Q1 logistics was greatly affected by the epidemic. The sales rate of 21 years / 21q4 / 22q1 was + 2.4 / - 1.0 / - 3.3pct year-on-year. The expenses of advertising and e-commerce live broadcasting in 21 years were large, which has been gradually optimized since Q4. The management rate of 21q4 / 22q1 increased by 0.7/0.5/1.9pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of employee salary caused by organizational adjustment and optimization; The R & D rate increased by 0.6/0.8/1.2pct year-on-year; The net interest rate was - 3.4 / + 2.8 / - 5.2pct year on year.
21 years of momentum, 22 years is expected to break out. 1) Products: flavor nuts and peanuts further upgrade the taste and packaging of the products; Anyang factory's new small snacks and the old three together enrich the bulk counter SKU. 2) Channel: 21 introduce experienced marketing executives from outside and strengthen the training of grass-roots sales personnel. 3) Profit margin: the product price increases by 10%. At present, it can basically cover the cost pressure and has a slight surplus. The gross profit margin of new products is no less than that of the old three. After the epidemic situation is gradually stabilized, the company will start large-scale investment promotion.
Investment advice
Considering the disturbance of the epidemic situation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be reduced by 19% / 24%. It is estimated that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 2.17/2.67/3.05 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 22 / 18 / 16x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuates, the promotion of new products is less than expected, food safety problems, and industry competition intensifies.
