\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 098 Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) )
The growth of revenue in the first quarter was in line with expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased rapidly. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.76%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.968 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.17%.
At the gross profit margin side, Q1 company can give a gross profit margin of 76.79% (YoY + 2.7pcts;) in 2022 On the expense side, the company’s Q1 sales expense rate in 2022 was 39% (YoY + 0.98pcts), mainly due to the rise of sales personnel and average company and the increase of advertising expenses, the management expense rate was 26% (yoy-2.47pcts) and the R & D expense rate was 7.96% (YoY + 0.08pcts); The overall net profit margin of sales increased by 2.9pcts to 8.82%. The net cash flow from operating activities of Q1 company in 2022 was – 35.55 million yuan, mainly due to the payment of employee salary, lecturer fee, tax and other expenses accrued last year.
The non recurring profit and loss of Q1 is split, and the investment income of trading financial assets accounts for a relatively high proportion, which has a certain sustainability Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) 2022 Q1 net profit deducted from non parent company was 5.2527 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.85%. In 2022, the non profit and loss of Q1 company was 2.715 million yuan, of which the investment income of trading financial assets was 3.703 million yuan. This part of income is mainly from the company’s abundant monetary capital in 2021, which is used for short-term financial management of banks. Considering the company’s business model of first collection, the company’s monetary capital will be in a relatively abundant state for a long time, so we believe that this part of the income has a certain sustainability.
Contract liabilities increased by 16% year-on-year, and the overall orders were stable and abundant. As of 2022, the contractual liabilities of Q1 company were 765 million yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 1.38% compared with the end of 2021. We believe that there are three main reasons for the slight decrease of Q1 contract liabilities in 2022 compared with the end of last year: 1) the first quarter has many holidays such as new year’s day and Spring Festival, which has always been the off-season of the company’s business. Therefore, the increase of Q1 contract liabilities in previous years is small, and Q1 contract liabilities in 2021 increased by only 18 million yuan compared with the end of 2020; 2) Under the epidemic situation in March, the company’s courses in other provinces were carried out normally, and some contract liabilities were carried forward into income. After the epidemic situation repeated in mid March, the company suspended the “principal EMBA” in Shanghai, but the “concentrated EMBA” in other provinces was carried out normally; 3) The epidemic in March affected the regular exhibition of the sales team in Shanghai. At present, the sales team in Shanghai has strong ability and accounts for a high proportion of income. Therefore, the epidemic in mid and late March has a certain impact on the course sales of the company. In conclusion, we believe that as the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the company’s contract liabilities will return to the track of high growth.
The epidemic has a certain impact on Teaching in Shanghai, and we are firmly optimistic about the demand toughness of business training. As of mid April 2022, the company’s courses in Shanghai are still suspended, so we think the revenue in the second quarter may be affected to some extent. However, we still believe that the demand for business training is still rigid, just suspended rather than disappeared. With the epidemic gradually controlled, the company’s revenue is expected to rise rapidly. At the same time, the epidemic occurred from the end of Q1 to the early Q2 of this year. Therefore, the company is expected to accelerate the revenue replenishment in the remaining months of this year. Compared with 2021q3, the suspension of courses caused by the epidemic also occurred in many places in China during this period. However, with the control of the epidemic, the revenue and performance of Q4 company quickly recovered to the normal level in 2021.
Investment suggestion: Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) course is more effective and has more direct help to the improvement of enterprise benefits; There are a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and the demand for management training is extremely sufficient Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) entrepreneur ecosystem has taken shape. In the future, with the steady improvement of the company’s business scale and the number of students, Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) ‘s reputation and brand effect may continue to improve to a higher level, thus forming a “snowball effect” to promote the progress of performance, and the company’s valuation center is expected to improve. Considering that the company is currently affected by the epidemic, we have lowered our performance forecast. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 191 / 257 / 326 million from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5% / 34.6% / 27.0%. The current market value corresponds to PE of 18x / 13X / 10x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects the course progress, and the course expansion is less than expected
