\u3000\u Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co.Ltd(300030) Cofco Biotechnology Co.Ltd(000930) 0009)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%.
The performance growth is in line with expectations, and the cost side is well controlled. The overall performance of the company in the first quarter is in line with expectations, and the profit growth is significantly faster than the revenue growth, which is mainly related to the relatively small cost investment in the first quarter. However, with the comprehensive promotion of sales, R & D and other work, the cost rate is expected to gradually return to the normal level.
There is a large market space for growth hormone, and water needle growth hormone is expected to be in large quantity. In terms of growth hormone, with the gradual elimination of the epidemic situation and the vigorous promotion of the company in 2021, the new patients recovered well and maintained rapid growth throughout the year. The company’s water needle growth hormone was approved in June 2019. After more than two years of market foreshadowing, it is expected to usher in a rapid volume in 2022. In addition, the company’s long-acting dosage form of growth hormone is about to go on the market. After the long-acting dosage form of growth hormone goes on the market, the company will have three dosage forms of water injection, powder injection and long-acting at the same time, which has greatly improved its competitiveness and long-term development is worth looking forward to.
The clinical progress of biological drugs is smooth, further opening up the growth space of the company. At present, the fastest progress is HER-2 biological analog, which has been reported for production. The company’s R & D progress is at the forefront of China and is expected to become a 1 billion variety. It is expected that HER-2 is expected to contribute to greater performance after it is listed. VEGF monoclonal antibody is currently in clinical phase III, with large market space, and the progress of the company is at the leading level. It is expected to contribute to greater performance flexibility after listing. Other products under development, such as Huoxue Zhitong gel plaster, have obtained approval documents for clinical trials, which will fill the gap in the market of this variety in China after listing; PD-1 monoclonal antibody is in phase I clinical stage; Bosheng gianco’s car-t for the treatment of B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia has obtained the clinical trial license. The company has rich R & D pipelines and sufficient motivation for long-term growth.
Profit forecast and rating. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.38 yuan, 0.52 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively, and the corresponding valuations will be 20 times, 15 times and 11 times respectively. Considering the recovery of the company’s biological product production capacity, the water injection type is about to increase rapidly. At the same time, the company’s biological drug pipeline under research is relatively abundant, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk tip: the risk that the volume of growth hormone is less than expected; Risk that the progress of products under development is less than expected.
