\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 88 Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) )
Core view
In 2021, the performance turned from loss to profit, which is within the performance forecast range. In 2021, the company achieved 629 million yuan / + 34.55%, which is estimated to return to 69% in 2019 according to the same caliber; The performance of the parent company was 18.08 million yuan / + 146.95% (after deducting Non Profits + 110.09%), which was within the performance forecast range. The overall loss turned into profit, but the performance of the parent company recovered only 8%, mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, eps0 03 yuan / share. Quarterly, the company's Q1-Q4 revenue increased by 95% / 126% / - 19% / 14% respectively, q1-q2 rebounded rapidly, and the comparable revenue recovered by 79% in 2021h1; In the second half of the year, the epidemic disturbance was large, and the income recovered only 59% according to comparable standards.
In 2021, the passenger flow into the mountain will recover by about 78%, and the profit performance of hotels, performing arts and other businesses will be dragged down. In 2021, the company achieved 2.6552 million person times / + 38.70%, with a recovery of about 78% and a relatively good recovery. The passenger flow in the first half of the year / the second half of the year recovered 91% / 47% respectively. In 2021, the company's valid tickets (excluding the impact of sharing) will be 61 yuan / + 3.43%. Overall, the company's ticket revenue was 158 million yuan / + 43.46%, and the cableway revenue was 225 million yuan / + 43.17%. The corresponding operating profit of the main tourism industry increased by about 30% and recovered to 41% in 2019, which is the core support for the improvement of the company's profit. Meanwhile, affected by the epidemic and the construction of hotel reconstruction and upgrading projects, the hotel revenue increased slightly by 3.82%, with a year-on-year increase in losses. Due to the fact that the performing arts business is not in the incubation period and is greatly affected by the epidemic, it is estimated that the loss to the mother in 2021 is nearly 30 million. In addition, other incomes such as tea and digital intelligence tourism increased by 50% +, boosting income growth.
The marginal changes of epidemic situation and travel control are tracked in the short term, and the diversified expansion of the middle line is expected to form a new growth point. Since this year, the epidemic has been repeated, and the short-term operation of the company is expected to be under pressure. If the epidemic situation stabilizes and travel control is relaxed in the future, its restorative growth will still be considerable. Although the company's "smart tourism" and "smart tourism" policies can not promote the economic growth of the company's "one theater" and "one theater" in the future, the company's "smart tourism" and "one theater" industries can still be formed on the basis of optimizing the economic growth of the company's "one theater" and "one theater" industries. At the same time, strengthen the marketing and publicity integration of the company's existing products, give full play to the advantages of the company's existing tickets, cableways, hotels and performing arts products, establish three systems of products, online popularity and we media, make efforts to carry out overall marketing, linkage marketing and global marketing, and cultivate key markets and people to ensure the growth of tourists and the improvement of the company's overall benefits.
Risk tips: epidemic risk, less than expected reform of state-owned enterprises, risk of ticket price reduction, etc.
Investment suggestion: reduce the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 to 0.04/0.35/0.43 yuan (previously, it was expected that the company's EPS from 22 to 23 years would be 0.38/0.43 yuan in August 2021, mainly due to the repeated epidemic since the beginning of 2022 and the tightening of travel policies), corresponding to pe181 / 18 / 15x. The recurrence of the epidemic and the pace of recovery have a great impact on the company's subsequent profit performance and valuation, and the epidemic and the pace of recovery still need to be tracked in the short term. However, in terms of the middle line, the company is the leader of China's natural scenic spots, with outstanding resource endowment and active diversified expansion. In the future, the growth of the middle line can still be expected to maintain the increase of holdings.
