\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Event:
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) released the annual report for 2021: the company achieved an operating revenue of 105142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.33%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.87%.
Key investment points:
Q4 gross profit margin recovered month on month, and R & D expenses squeezed the net profit margin. In Q4 of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 25.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 9.68% and a month on month increase of + 15.73%; The net profit of shareholders of listed companies was 560 million yuan, up + 446.41% year on year and - 55.66% month on month; Gross profit margin 18.88%, mom + 1.49pct; The net interest rate was 2.07%, with a chain comparison of -3.56pct, which was mainly due to the company's transformation of intelligent electric and the increase of R & D expense rate; The R & D expense rate was 5.51%, with a month on month increase of + 2.88%. In the whole year, the gross profit margin of the company was 16.64%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.34pct; The net interest rate was 3.43%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.46pct. The improvement of the company's gross profit margin is mainly due to the improvement of sales volume in the independent sector and the overall improvement of profitability in the joint venture sector.
Independent joint venture makes concerted efforts, and the automobile sales volume is leading in the industry. In 2021, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.301 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 14.8%, with a market share of 8.76%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.84 PCT, and returned to the fourth place of the automobile group. In terms of independent brands, 1.755 million cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.7%, the second fastest growth rate in the industry; Among them, the sales volume of Changan passenger brand and Auchan brand was 966 / 228000, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0% / 49.0%. Auchan X5 continues to maintain its monthly sales at 10000 units, ranking sixth in the compact SUV of its own brand. Cs75plus, Yidong plus, unit / K and other models also perform well in the subdivided fields. In terms of joint venture brands, Changan Ford sold 305000 vehicles in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 20.3%, turning losses into profits, and SUV models and high-end cars contributed more than 70% of sales. During the year, the company cooperated with Lincoln brand, and new products such as adventurer, navigator and Aviator were officially put into operation. The annual sales of 89000 vehicles were increased by 109.1% year-on-year.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 200%. In 2021, the company's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 100000 for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%, including 106400 passenger vehicles and 7700 commercial vehicles, with a total corresponding sales revenue of 1.236 billion yuan, mainly including escape EV, Benben ESTAR, cs55e rock and other models. In 2022, the company plans to continue to launch Lumin, c385, avita and other pure electric vehicles, accelerate the layout of uni series electrification products, and help achieve the sales target of 1.05 million new energy vehicles in 2025.
Coordinate the layout of software and hardware to promote the transformation of intelligent electric. On the one hand, the company continues to increase the research and development of smart cockpit and intelligent vehicle control, and build Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) Intelligent Computing Center to support intelligent driving and vehicle networking services; On the other hand, it has independently researched and developed super electric drive, electric drive, breakthrough battery zero fire technology and compact pure electric platform, and created an intelligent vehicle domain controller "smart core" svdc. At the same time, it has cooperated with AVIC lithium, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Huawei, horizon and other enterprises. Promote the comprehensive transformation of the company from a low-carbon technology industry to a more intelligent one.
Profit forecast and investment rating in the past two years, the company has launched seven new products, with an annual sales volume of 566000, which is optimistic about the company's product definition ability. With the large-scale delivery of independent brands and new energy models, the company's revenue and profit are expected to continue to grow. It is estimated that the company's main business income from 2022 to 2024 will be 114.0 billion yuan, 124.8 billion yuan and 1373.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%, 9% and 10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.7 billion yuan, 6.4 billion yuan and 7.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59%, 13% and 14%. The corresponding EPS was 0.74, 0.84 and 0.96 yuan respectively, and the PE valuation corresponding to the current stock price was 12, 11 and 10 times respectively. The valuation was reasonable and maintained the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Raw material prices rise; Chip shortage continues; The delivery process of new models is not as expected; Electric and intelligent transformation is slow; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the stability of the supply chain.
