\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Performance review
On April 27, the company released the first quarterly report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 1.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.15%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.64%.
Business analysis
The price increase effect is superimposed on the large amount of nuts, and the sales performance is bright in the peak season. Considering the dislocation of the Spring Festival, combined with 21q4 + 22q1, the growth rate increased by 17.15% year-on-year and 6.44pct month on month compared with 21q3. We think it is mainly due to the smooth transmission of the price increase of melon seeds and the bright performance of nuts during the peak season, especially the box packing of nuts is expected to double. Since March, the epidemic has occurred repeatedly, which mainly has a certain impact on logistics; In terms of demand, the demand for melon seeds increased, and nuts had a slight adverse impact. In terms of raw materials, 60% of the annual procurement of sunflower seeds has been completed before the Spring Festival, and the cost has increased by 5-10%. The price increase can be basically covered.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the room for gross profit improvement is narrowed, but the overall risk resistance is strong. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 30.86%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.18pct and a month on month decrease of 2.57pct compared with 21q4. It is expected that the epidemic will mainly affect the logistics cost. In 22q1, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was -0.14 / + 0.01 / - 0.08 / + 0.52pct year-on-year respectively. Transmitted to the net interest rate, the net interest rate of 22q1 increased from + 0.18pct to 14.51% year-on-year, and the profitability was relatively stable.
22 year growth certainty can be expected. Melon seeds continue to penetrate vulnerable channels, nut power community stores and other emerging channels. It is expected that Guokui and nuts can achieve growth of about 15% and more than 35% respectively in 22 years. In terms of new products, we have been storing flavor nuts and melon seeds for 22 years, focusing on rattan pepper and orange peel melon seeds. In addition, the high-end Kui Zhen series will also focus on making efforts, which is expected to double its growth. In the 21st year, the company began to build the channel intensive cultivation information system. At present, nearly 120000 terminals are online, of which about 70 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 00 are new terminals; The million terminal plan continues to be promoted. At present, the number of terminals is more than 400000.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 1.123/13.02/1.478 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21% / 16% / 14%, corresponding EPS of 2.21/2.57/2.92 yuan and PE of 26 / 22 / 20x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Industry competition intensifies; Food safety issues; Price changes of raw materials; The promotion of new products was less than expected.
