\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 637 Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) )
In the first quarter of 2022, the performance declined slightly, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations after deducting the impact of DMO. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 2.9 billion yuan (YoY + 25.9%, Mom - 8.9%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 165 million yuan (YoY - 9.1%, Mom - 14.1%), the company's gross profit margin was 13.3% (YoY - 4.4pp, mom + 6.0pp), the three rate was 5.0% (YoY - 0.9pp) and the net profit margin was 5.5% (YoY - 2.0pp, mom + 0.1pp). The Ministry of Commerce of Indonesia announced that from February 15, all exporters of crude palm oil and its derivatives in Indonesia need to comply with the Chinese market obligation (DMO), requiring oil derivatives export enterprises to fulfill the obligation to sell edible palm oil at a parity in China according to the export proportion of 30%, which has an adverse impact on the export of the products of its subsidiary, Indonesia dukuda. However, the DMO policy was cancelled on March 21, deducting the impact of this event, We believe that the company's performance in the first quarter slightly exceeded expectations.
The Indonesian government cancels the DMO policy and increases the palm oil export tax, and dukuda's profit is expected to increase significantly. On March 18, the Indonesian government issued a policy to abolish the China market obligation (DMO) policy and increase the export tax and export surcharge levy ceiling of crude palm oil from US $375 / ton to US $675 / ton. The policy will be implemented on March 21, 2022. With the implementation of the new policy, the downstream industrial chain of palm oil in Indonesia will benefit greatly, and most tariffs will be transformed into the cost advantage of local oil factories in Indonesia, further increasing the cost gap between local enterprises in Indonesia and overseas petrochemical enterprises. The company has an annual output of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, and the profit per ton is expected to expand to 15002000 yuan / ton.
The company is a global leading enterprise in surfactant and oil chemical industry, extending to OEM / ODM in the downstream daily chemical field. At present, the OEM production capacity of 100000 tons in Zhenjiang base has been fully produced and sold. 500000 tons of OEM bases are arranged in Hebi, Henan, Meishan, Sichuan and Cangzhou, Hebei. The production capacity is 10 / 60 / 1.6 million tons at the end of 2021 / 2022 / 2023 respectively. Combined with core customers such as downstream Unilever, P & G, blue moon and white cat, the daily consumption attribute has grown steadily. The company is the leader of China's oil chemical industry and will expand to the downstream high-end food grade oleic acid and ester in the future. Hangzhou Petrochemical 100000 t / a project under construction includes 20000 t / a OPO structural ester, 50000 T / a food grade monoglyceride and other high-end structural ester products, which are expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2022.
Risk tips: palm oil prices fell sharply, downstream demand was lower than expected, Indonesia's export policy risk, and the commissioning progress of new projects was lower than expected.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.29/15.9/1.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 62 / 23 / 14%; Diluted EPS = 2.75/3.37/3.84 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 5 / 4 / 4x. The company is a leading surfactant and oil chemical enterprise in China. Indonesia's dukuda benefited from Indonesia's new palm oil export policy, further expanded its cost advantage and maintained its "buy" rating.
