\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
Event: the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue reached 5.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.76% and a month on month increase of 0.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 807 million yuan, an increase of 166.93% year-on-year and 42.58% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 615 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118.74% and a month on month increase of 11.62%.
The demand for cathode products continues to be strong and the profitability is stable. 22q1 company’s negative electrode material business contributed 147 million yuan to the parent company’s net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 43.44%. If the shipment volume in the reporting period exceeds 28000 tons corresponding to the profit level in 2021, the production capacity of 120000 tons / year has been realized. Since 2022, the price of needle coke, an important raw material for cathode business, has increased significantly, from 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to more than 13000 yuan / ton, an increase of about 34%. It is expected that the price rise of raw materials in the future will be reflected in the financial statements, that is, the cost side pressure will urge the company to increase the product price, corresponding to a slight decrease in the company’s gross profit margin. However, if the cost pressure can be fully conducted, the profitability of negative electrode products will remain stable after the product price increases. Considering the current tight graphitization capacity and the scarcity of high-quality cathode products, it is expected that the profit level of the company’s cathode business in the whole year will still be close to expectations.
The share of fast charging products continued to increase, and silicon-based products achieved large-scale application. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.54% in 22q1, an increase of 1.42pp compared with 21q4, or benefited from the improvement of profitability driven by the increase of the value of shipped products. The company’s cathode material products have excellent performance, fast charging products are in high volume, and the proportion of shipments has increased to 50%. At the same time, the company’s silicon-based negative electrode products have taken the lead in realizing large-scale market application, achieved 100 ton sales in the field of consumption and electric tools, and entered the supply chain of global high-quality electric tool manufacturers; In the field of power batteries, the company’s silicon-based products have passed the product certification of global high-quality power customers, have been loaded, and the sales volume is expected to increase significantly in the future.
The polarizer business has developed steadily. The production and marketing scale of the company’s polarizer business is the world’s leading. The Nanjing production base and Guangzhou production base maintain full production. Through the improvement of equipment and technology, the production line speed is increased, which effectively improves the production line capacity. By the end of 2021, the company has installed 24 RTP production lines, leading the world in terms of investment scale and number of production lines. The polarizer industry has the characteristics of high industry barriers, fast growth, large domestic substitution space, and high market concentration. As the industry leader, the company is expected to continue to bring huge profits to the company and form a stable support for performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.56 yuan, 1.98 yuan and 2.33 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 14% in the next three years. Considering that the polarizer business of the company is stable and improving, building a performance safety pad, and the strong negative business is always strong, with the rapid release of graphitization supporting capacity, the profitability is expected to be further improved and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of market competition; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; Risks of new product and new technology development; Risk of performance decline; Exchange rate risk; Risk that the production expansion progress is less than expected.
