\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 110595/87.057944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.15% / + 22.98% / + 19.90%. Among them, Q4 operating income / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company was 25.588761/397 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.70% / – 27.82% / – 51.49%. 22q1 achieved operating income / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 31.047/35.19/3.290 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 13.47% / + 24.32% / + 25.18%.
Leading the development of the industry and sustained revenue growth. In terms of products in 2021, liquid milk increased by + 11.5% year-on-year, of which sales volume / unit price / structure upgrading contributed 6.7% / 2.7% / 2.2% respectively. In terms of normal temperature, Jindian organic milk increased strongly by 41.5%, and Shuhua milk increased by nearly 30% year-on-year. The new amx sugar free series and amushi new taste showed brilliant performance. In terms of low temperature, fresh milk increased by 250%, 14 times the growth rate of the industry. Yogurt continued to push through the old and bring forth the new, such as the introduction of high-end product lines “protein time” and palace cheese series. Milk powder and dairy products increased by 25.8% year-on-year, and the sales volume / structure upgrading / unit price contributed 11.1% / 12.7% / 2% respectively. The growth rate of the company’s infant powder was the first in the market, and the market share increased by 1.4pst It ranks second in the industry, and adult milk powder remains the first in the market. Cheese BC two wheel drive, with an increase of more than 150%, launched new products such as normal temperature cheese stick and thick cheese, and achieved rapid penetration with powerful channels. Cold drink products increased by + 16.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume / structure / unit price contributed 9.7% / 4.6% / 2.0% respectively. Both China and foreign countries achieved high growth. The built Indonesian ice cream factory further strengthened the company’s layout in the Southeast Asian market. 22q1 liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold drinks increased by 7.0% / 35.3% / 35.5% respectively. The company continues to innovate, optimize product structure, improve all-channel fine management, and actively explore overseas markets. The revenue is expected to continue to grow in double digits.
Innovation + optimization of business structure, and steady improvement of profitability. In 2021, the gross profit rate / sales expense rate / management expense rate / net profit rate are 30.5% / 17.5% / 3.8% / 7.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.5 / + 0.04 / – 0.2 / + 0.6pct. Among them, the gross profit rate / sales expense rate / management expense rate / net profit rate under the 21q4 reduction standard is 34.1% / 24.5% / 6.0% / 3.0%, year-on-year + 1.4 / + 3.5 / – 0.5 / – 1.6pct, The main reason is that during the Winter Olympic Games, the company increased the investment of expenses, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 + 22q1 reached 10.2%. 22q1 gross profit rate / sales expense rate / management expense rate / net profit rate were 34.3% / 18.1% / 3.3% / 11.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.3 / – 3.4 / – 1.0 / + 1.0pct, If the impact of changes in accounting standards is restored, the gross profit margin may increase year-on-year. Looking forward to the future, as the company continues to accelerate the development of milk sources, improve its innovation ability and increase the proportion of high gross profit business, its profitability is expected to maintain a steady improvement.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s EPS in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 1.67, 1.98 and 2.32 respectively, and the six-month target price will be 45.54 yuan, corresponding to 23x PE in 2023.
Risk tip: raw milk price fluctuations exceed expectations, industry competition intensifies, and food safety problems
