\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years, realizing an operating revenue of 8.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105%; The net profit deducted from non profits was 1.895 billion yuan, an increase of 101% year-on-year. In line with the previous forecast interval. In the first quarter, 2.11 million tetravalent HPV vaccines were issued in batches, an increase of nearly 70%; Nine valent HPV vaccines were issued in batches of 4.83 million, an increase of nearly 280%; 3.24 million pentavalent rotavirus vaccines were issued in batches, an increase of nearly 220%; 48 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) valent pneumonia vaccines were issued in batches, an increase of more than 100%. We expect that covid-19 vaccine has limited contribution, and the main contribution is non covid-19 products.
The company’s R & D pipeline continues to advance and is expected to continue to provide growth power in the next few years. The preventive micro card and EC diagnostic reagent of heavy products in the company’s R & D pipeline have been approved. It is expected to contribute a large profit in 2022 and increase the proportion of independent profit. Other products, such as 23 valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine, human diploid rabies vaccine (which has been announced to obtain the clinical summary report and will be reported for production soon), tetravalent influenza vaccine, 15 valent pneumonia vaccine, tetravalent meningitis combination, dysentery bivalent and other products, are in clinical phase III. EV71 vaccine and tetravalent norovin vaccine are in clinical phase I to phase II. They will be gradually put on the market in the next few years to provide a driving force for sustainable development, The company’s R & D pipeline valuation remodeling continues. The company’s R & D expenses in the first quarter were 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161%, and the R & D investment continued to increase.
Launch a new round of employee stock ownership to show confidence in future development. The company launched the third employee stock ownership plan. Under the background of common prosperity, the number of employees involved is far ahead of twice. According to the company’s 20-year annual report, the total number of employees involved is 3380, which is close to 60%. At the same time, the total amount raised is 2.92 billion yuan, which is far ahead of twice. We expect the average price of employee stock ownership to be about 100 yuan / share, and the current stock price is lower than the price of employee stock ownership. While highlighting the company’s development confidence, it is also expected to greatly mobilize the overall enthusiasm of the company.
Profit forecast: covid-19 vaccine is expected to significantly improve the company’s performance. At the same time, we expect the epidemic to show a normalization trend. Due to the large amount of contribution to the performance, we will not consider covid-19 forecast temporarily. At the same time, we will adjust the profit forecast according to the company’s annual report of 21 years and the first quarterly report of 22 years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.019 billion yuan RMB 9.042 billion and RMB 11.060 billion (we expect the non covid-19 profit to be RMB 4.629 billion in 2021), with a year-on-year increase of 52%, 29% and 22%; EPS is 4.39 yuan, 5.65 yuan and 6.91 yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: HPV sales are lower than expected; Uncertainty of product R & D progress.
