\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 733 Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 & quarterly report of 2022: 1) annual report of 2021: realized revenue of 6.017 billion yuan (+ 24.2%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.017 billion yuan (+ 41.8%), deducted net profit attributable to non parent company of 958 million yuan (+ 48.4%); Single Q4 achieved revenue of 1.655 billion yuan (+ 9.9%), net profit attributable to parent company of 114 million yuan (- 49.0%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 101 million yuan (- 50.3%). 2) Quarterly report of January 2022: the revenue of single Q1 is 1.678 billion yuan (+ 10.0%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 146 million yuan (- 47.8%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 132 million yuan (- 51.5%). The short-term pressure on profit is mainly due to the rise of energy & pulp price. At present, the company gradually increases the price and the sales volume is expected to rise, and the annual profit is expected to enter the upward channel month on month.
The product matrix is comprehensive and the leading position is stable. Thanks to its outstanding core competitiveness, crane has the ability of product R & D and flexible & refined production. At present, it has formed a diversified layout of more than 60 products in six series, gradually inclined the product structure to the direction of consumption and increased the added value of products. By category:
Daily consumption series: in 21 years, the revenue is 2.499 billion yuan (+ 41.6%), the gross profit margin is 17.2% (+ 1.3pct), and the sales volume is 297600 tons (+ 31.5%). The high increase in revenue is mainly due to the wide downstream applications and strong demand of products such as thermal applications (25% of the market), heat transfer paper (30% of the market), grazin paper (20% of the market).
Food and medical packaging series: in 21 years, the revenue is 993 million yuan (+ 16.8%), the gross profit margin is 23.6% (- 0.5pct), and the sales volume is 107700 tons (+ 12.7%).
Business communication and publishing house printing materials series: in 21 years, the revenue is 835 million yuan (+ 7.1%), the gross profit margin is 14.5% (- 4.3pct), and the sales volume is 126100 tons (- 4.9%), of which the market share of low quantitative publishing and printing paper is more than 90%.
Supporting series of tobacco industry: the revenue is 786 million yuan (+ 8.2%), the gross profit margin is 29.2% (- 3.2pct), and the sales volume is 92800 tons (+ 6.2%). At present, the market share of the whole series is nearly 45%.
Electrical and industrial paper series: the revenue is 510 million yuan (+ 32.6%), the gross profit margin is 25.3% (- 0.3pct), and the sales volume is 47100 tons (+ 26.0%).
The production capacity was released steadily and the market share increased rapidly. At present, the production capacity of the company has exceeded 1 million tons, and has the production capacity of the whole industrial chain such as forest land, chemical industry, pulping, energy, logistics, base paper and paper products. The new production capacity continues to contribute to the increment. It is expected that 300000 tons of food cardboard production capacity will be put into operation from July to August of 22, and the projects in Guangxi and Hubei will be gradually constructed. According to our calculation, the company's output (including joint ventures) from 2022 to 2025 will be 1.25 million tons, 1.5 million tons, 2.1 million tons and 2.6 million tons respectively, with a CAGR of more than 25% in four years. In the future, the company's new production capacity will be mainly distributed in consumption boom tracks such as food and medical treatment, heat transfer printing and decorative base paper. More than 2000 customers in the downstream will fully digest the production capacity, and the market share will increase steadily.
The logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price is smooth, and the profit is expected to gradually pick up. 21. The annual gross profit margin is 20.0% (- 0.5pct) and the net profit margin is 16.9% (+ 2.1pct); The gross profit margin of single Q4 is 11.6% (- 1.9pct) and the net profit margin is 6.8% (- 8.0pct). The short-term pressure on profits is mainly due to the rise of energy & pulp prices. Up to now, the company has carried out several rounds of price increases. The gross profit margin of 22q1 has reached 11.5% (- 11.0pct, mom -0.01pct), and the net profit margin has reached 8.7% (- 9.7pct, mom + 1.9pct). In the second half of the year, with the upward sales volume and downward cost, the profit elasticity is expected to be released. From the perspective of expense performance, the expense rate during 2021 is 5.2% (- 1.1pct), the sales expense rate is 0.36% (+ 0.04pct), the management expense rate is 1.9% (- 0.2pct), the financial expense rate is 0.3% (- 1.1pct), and the R & D expense rate is 2.6% (+ 0.1pct); During 22q1, the expense rate was 3.8% (- 1.1pct), the sales expense rate was 0.31% (+ 0.01pct), the management expense rate was 1.4% (- 0.6pct), the financial expense rate was 0.9% (+ 0.3pct), the R & D expense rate was 1.2% (- 0.8pct), and the expense rate was stable.
Inventory increased and operating efficiency was slightly under pressure. The net operating cash flow in 2021 was 447 million yuan (+ 48.1%), the single Q4 was 41 million yuan (- 91.2%), and the net operating cash flow in 22q1 was 107 million yuan (- 1.7%). In terms of operating efficiency, as of 2021, the turnover days of accounts receivable are 66.15 days (- 2.14 days), the turnover days of accounts payable are 46.41 days (+ 1.32 days), and the turnover days of inventory are 121.96 days (+ 12.34 days); 22q1 accounts receivable turnover days were 65.84 days (+ 3.80 days), accounts payable turnover days were 45.14 days (+ 8.13 days), inventory turnover days were 111.06 days (+ 14.21 days), 21q4 price weakened & 22q1 epidemic interference, inventory rose.
Investment rating: the product layout of crane is consumption and the growth path is clear. The company's profit is expected to be RMB 1.19 billion, 1.54 billion and 1.94 billion in 202224, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, 29.0% and 26.0%, corresponding to PE of 11.9x, 9.2x and 7.3x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the prices of raw materials and energy rise more than expected, the epidemic situation repeats and the competition intensifies.
