\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
The production and sales of silicon wafers and components continued to grow, and the performance of 22q1 exceeded expectations.
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 80.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%. The higher than expected performance of 22q1 was mainly due to the strong profitability of silicon wafer and the investment income contributed by participating in silicon material business.
Batteries and components: implement the product leading strategy, deepen organizational reform and the construction of marketing system.
In 2021, the company’s revenue from batteries and components reached 58.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.30%; The gross profit margin is 17.06%. The company’s shipments of single crystal components were 38.52gw, including 37.24gw of external sales, with a year-on-year increase of 55.45%. In 2022q1, the company shipped 6.44gw of single crystal components, including 6.35gw of external sales, and the gross profit margin of batteries and components was 19.27%. The company has sufficient orders on hand and expects to ship 50-60gw of components (including self use) in 2022. By the end of 2021, the company’s single crystal battery and single crystal component capacity had reached 37gw and 60GW respectively, and it is expected to reach 60GW and 85gw respectively by the end of 2022. In terms of technology, the conversion efficiency of n-type TOPCON battery, hjt battery and p-type TOPCON battery announced by the company in 2021 continues to refresh the industry record. The company accelerates the industrial application and capacity construction of new battery technology. Taizhou Leye 4gw single crystal battery project is expected to be put into operation in August 2022, and Xixian Leye 15gw high-efficiency single crystal battery project is expected to be put into operation in September 2022.
Silicon wafer: the cost of non silicon has decreased significantly, and the production capacity is expected to reach 150gw in 2022.
In 2021, the company’s silicon wafer and silicon rod revenue reached 17.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.77%; The gross profit margin is 27.55%. The company has achieved 70.01gw of single crystal silicon wafer shipments, including 33.92gw for external sales and 36.09gw for self use. In 2022q1, the company’s shipment volume of monocrystalline silicon wafer is 18.36gw, including 8.42gw for external sales and 9.94gw for self use. The gross profit margin of silicon rod and silicon wafer is 23.24%. By the end of 2021, the company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity has reached 105gw; By the end of 2022, the company expects the annual production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafer to reach 150gw, and the shipment is expected to be 90-100gw (including self use). The company has made continuous breakthroughs in core technologies such as single crystal pulling speed improvement and wire breaking control, slice fine line and slice cutting, and intelligent equipment. In 2021, the non silicon cost of the whole process of silicon wafer decreased by 7% compared with 2020, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency increase were remarkable.
Profit and valuation forecast
The company is the leader of photovoltaic integration, with significant cost advantage, leading products + mechanism reform to build a long-term competitive advantage. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 14.075 billion yuan, 18.046 billion yuan and 22.068 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.60, 3.33 and 4.08 yuan / share respectively, and corresponding PE of 24, 18 and 15 times respectively.
Risk tip: the photovoltaic demand is less than expected; International trade frictions have intensified.
