\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 32 New Trend International Logis-Tech Co.Ltd(300532) )
Key investment points
The new deal for high-quality development of the petrochemical industry in the 14th five year plan was released to drive the upgrading of smart logistics engine
In April 2022, six departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of science and technology jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan, which proposed that by 2025, the production concentration of bulk chemical products will be further improved and the capacity utilization rate will reach more than 80%; Digital transformation, the automatic control rate of main production devices of enterprises in key fields such as petrochemical and coal chemical industry has reached more than 95%, and about 30 intelligent manufacturing demonstration plants and about 50 intelligent chemical industry demonstration parks have been built.
The petrochemical industry occupies an important position in the national economy, and the construction of smart logistics will enter a rising period
The petrochemical industry is China's basic industry and plays an important role in the national economy. According to the data of China research network, in 2021, enterprises above Designated Size in China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) industry achieved a total revenue of 14.45 trillion yuan and a total profit of 1.16 trillion yuan, both reaching a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 30% and 126.8% respectively. Smart logistics has always been a major short board affecting the high-quality development of petrochemical enterprises. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, Sinopec took the lead in opening the construction of smart logistics system and exploring solutions such as FFS intelligent packaging line, intelligent three-dimensional warehouse, automatic loading system and intelligent delivery system. In the future, with the expansion of production scale and the improvement of technical level of petrochemical enterprises, the importance and value of logistics will be paid more and more attention, and the intelligent logistics market of petrochemical industry will enter a rising period.
The company has the first mover advantage and the accumulation of large projects in the petrochemical industry, and the order release is accelerated after the environmental impact assessment
As early as 2016, the company has begun to lay out the petrochemical industry, and has participated in the construction of many intelligent logistics projects of Sinopec, with obvious first mover advantages. In 2020, the company's new orders in the petrochemical industry reached 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 346%. In 2021, affected by national policies, petrochemical industry projects need to go through EIA procedures again, and the company has launched the follow-up project progress, resulting in only 47.76 million yuan of new orders in the petrochemical industry in that year, and 445 million yuan of unconfirmed revenue orders at the end of the year. In 2022, with the gradual completion of EIA procedures, the company's orders in the petrochemical industry increased rapidly, and won the bid for Sinopec's 130 million yuan logistics automation order in March. The subsequent logistics automation orders in the petrochemical industry may be released faster.
Profit and valuation forecast
The company has a significant first mover advantage and accumulation of large projects in the petrochemical logistics market. The release of the new policy of the petrochemical industry will drive the release of the demand of the intelligent logistics market of the industry, and the growth of the company's petrochemical business can be expected. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 160 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 24, 15 and 10 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The macro-economy affects the downstream demand, the policy implementation is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
