\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 505 China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) )
Affected by transportation, the company's performance fell year-on-year, the short-term disturbance did not change the long-term growth, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 325828 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.00%. The year-on-year decline of the company's performance was mainly affected by two factors: (1) the logistics impact caused by the epidemic led to poor delivery, and the sales volume of fluorite decreased by 13% year-on-year; (2) The price of fluorite refined powder decreased by 67 yuan / ton (tax included) compared with 2021q1 and 99 yuan / ton (tax included) compared with 2021q4. We maintain the company's profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 400, 637 and 871 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 128, 2.05 and 2.80 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 18.7, 11.7 and 8.6 times respectively. The short-term disturbance does not change the long-term growth and maintains the "buy" rating.
The company's Q1 fluorite output increased by 21.5%, and the product inventory was increased in time
The production of all mines of 2022q1 company is generally normal, with a total production of about 80000 tons of fluorite products, an increase of about 14000 tons over 2021q1, an increase of 21.5%. However, due to the logistics impact of the epidemic, the sales volume of fluorite products of the company is about 70000 tons, a decrease of about 10000 tons compared with the same period in 2021, a decrease of about 13%. The decline in sales volume is a short-term force majeure and has no material impact on the medium and long-term development of the company. At the same time, considering the obvious low price of fluorite in the first quarter, especially in March, the company not only appropriately increased the inventory in terms of sales strategy, but also purchased a batch of fluorite powder at the price of 2390 yuan / ton (tax included), which will be delivered successively before September 2022. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, at present (April 27), the average market price of fluorite 97 wet powder is 2591 yuan / ton (including tax), which has rebounded slightly from the low point in March. We believe that although the company's Q1 performance is under pressure, the overall production is still normal, the output continues to rise, and the short-term adverse effects will eventually be eliminated. At that time, the company will not only quickly return to normal operation, but also have a great possibility to obtain good inventory income in the future.
Fluorite import and export data change greatly, and the company carries out international trade business
According to the company's first quarterly report data, in 2022q1, China's Fluorite import volume decreased by 84.4% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 31.6% year-on-year. The export of 3300 tons of fluorite is higher than that of the same period in 2021, and the company is signing a new order of 3700 tons of fluorite. In addition, the company's recent acceptance of inquiries from overseas customers has increased significantly, and it is expected that the company's overseas order volume will increase significantly in 2022.
Risk tip: the progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, and the downstream demand is less than expected
