\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 511 C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) )
Revenue grew steadily, optimistic about the long-term development of the leader, and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the revenue was 9.15 billion yuan (+ 16.95%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 581 million yuan (- 35.85%) (due to the price falling short of expectations / the rise of materials and energy), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 568 million yuan (- 36.30%). In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.88 billion yuan (- 10.36%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan (- 50.82%) (the gross profit margin was -7.6pct year-on-year, and there was the advantage of low stock pulp in the same period of 2021), deducting 127 million yuan (- 52.5%) of non attributable net profit. Considering the cost side pressure, we lowered the profit forecast and added the profit forecast for 2024. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 601 / 683 / 834 million yuan (originally 20222023.702 / 792 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.46/0.52/0.64 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 22.3/19.6/16.0 times. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the leader and maintain the "buy" rating.
The rising cost caused periodic pressure on profitability, and the increase in revenue caused a significant increase in cash flow
On the revenue side, the income of household paper in 2021 was 8.658 billion yuan (+ 15.4%), which was mainly driven by the growth of sales volume under the empowerment of brand marketing (year-on-year + 26%). On the profit side, the gross profit margin of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 is 38.9% / 34.3% / 31.5% / 32.8% respectively by quarter. Because we judge that Q1 / Q2 mainly has the advantage of low stock pulp, the gross profit is relatively high. With the consumption of stock pulp and the sharp rise of energy cost caused by power and production restriction, Q3's profit reaches the lowest in the whole year. Q4's gross profit margin rises slightly with the marginal improvement of pulp and energy cost, and the comprehensive annual gross profit margin is 35.9% (- 5.4pct). In 2022q1, the company raised the price of some products, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.3pct to 32.8% month on month compared with Q4. On the expense side, the sales rate increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of + 2pct to 21.7%, which is due to the company's active expansion and development of channel construction and increased strategic investment in brand publicity. The overall stability of financial rate / management rate is - 0.08% / 3.7% respectively, and the period rate is 25.4% (+ 1.2%). Under the combined effect, the net interest rate is 6.3% (- 5.2pct). Cash flow: the net cash flow from operating activities was 1.32 billion yuan (+ 59.33%), which was due to the increase in sales revenue.
The short-term multi factor disturbance cost pressure is still in place, and the medium and long-term capacity launch lays the foundation for performance growth
In the short term, the cost pressure remains: the pulp price continues to fluctuate in the high range due to the fermentation of many factors such as North American flood, European strike and Tonga tsunami; In the first half of the year, there was a low base effect in the energy cost (the energy cost in 2021 rose sharply from the second half of the year), so we should pay attention to the subsequent price increase of the company. At present, the company has a production capacity of 800000 + tons, and the integration of 400000 tons of household paper and 300000 tons of bamboo pulp paper will be put into operation in the future, laying a foundation for medium and long-term performance growth.
Risk tip: pulp prices rose sharply, terminal demand fell sharply, and capacity construction was less than expected.
