\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing a revenue of 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 51 million, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%; EPS0. 09 yuan.
Key points supporting rating
The release of quick-frozen production capacity and market development continued to grow at a high rate, catering benefited from the consolidation of taotaoju, and the growth rate of other foods fell due to the impact of the consumption environment. (1) The company’s 1q22 revenue was 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%. By category, the income of moon cake / quick freezing / other products / catering is – 2% / + 28% / – 11% / + 26% respectively. ① After the release of quick-frozen production capacity, the quick-frozen production line of Meizhou base has released production capacity in 4q, and the company has achieved rapid growth under the condition of capacity supply + continuous development of quick-frozen market. The decline in growth rate of 4q21 month on month was mainly due to the advance of the Spring Festival, which had a slight impact on sales in the first quarter. ② Other products were – 11% year-on-year, and 1q was mainly made of new year goods. Affected by the consumption environment and the advance of this year’s Spring Festival, the sales of festival products fell. ③ Catering increased by + 26% year-on-year, including the contribution brought by Tao taoju’s consolidated statement. Excluding the impact of Tao taoju’s consolidated statement, we judged that the main brand catering was flat or slightly lower year-on-year, mainly because the epidemic in Dongguan, Shenzhen and other places in the first quarter made the Hall Food Dining lower than expected. (2) In terms of regions, the income within Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province / overseas is + 11% / + 16% / + 3% respectively, and the expansion outside Guangdong province continues. (3) In terms of distribution methods, the direct sales / distribution revenue is + 14% / + 9% respectively. (4) In terms of the number of dealers, the number of dealers was 1007, with a net decrease of 4.
Deducting non net interest rate + 0.1pct, the profitability is basically the same. (1) 1q22 gross profit margin was 30.3%, year-on-year + 1.3pct, mainly due to: ① the decline in the price of raw materials such as pork; ② Taotaoju’s gross profit margin is higher than that of the main brand Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , resulting in consolidation. (2) 1q22 total expense rate + 0.8pct: among them, the sales expense rate is + 0.7pct, which is 9.5%, which is affected by promotional activities; The rate of administrative expenses is -0.2pct, which is 9.2%; The R & D expense rate is + 0.3pct, and the financial expense rate is flat. (3) 1q22 net interest rate was 7.0%, with a year-on-year -0.1pct basically unchanged; The net interest rate after deducting non profit was 6.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1ct.
The national epidemic has hit the catering industry repeatedly. Quick freezing is the key cultivation sector of the company, and the release of production capacity provides guarantee for rapid development. Since 1q22, there have been multiple outbreaks all over the country, which has caused a certain blow to the whole catering industry. About 1 / 5 of the company’s revenue composition comes from catering, which is expected to be affected. Quick freezing has been the key cultivation sector of the company in recent years. At present, the company has formed a production capacity pattern with complementary cross regional advantageous products in Guangzhou, Xiangtan, Maoming and Meizhou. At the same time, the quick-frozen food production project in phase II of Xiangtan base is currently being designed to lay a production capacity foundation for the growth of quick-frozen food in the 14th five year plan.
Valuation
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the catering business may be impacted. We adjust the profit forecast and predict that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 1.19/1.41/1.67 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.7% / + 18.9% / + 18.0%. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The increase of raw material cost exceeded expectations; The impact of repeated epidemic on catering business; The output of the project is less than expected; Food safety risks; Goodwill impairment risk.
