\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Event overview: the performance increased by 10% year-on-year, which is in line with the expectation. It is expected to remain flat to a low growth after excluding Tao taoju and consolidating the table
The company announced that the operating revenue of Q1 in 2022 will be 750 million yuan / + 11.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 53 million yuan / + 10.4%, which is in line with the expectation, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 7.0%, which is -0.1pct compared with the same period of 21 years; Deduct non net profit of RMB 51 million / + 13.2%. In addition, the net cash flow from operating activities was - 56 million yuan, an improvement from - 130 million yuan in the same period of 21q1. 22q1 assuming that taotaoju catering brings a performance contribution of 2.5-4.5 million yuan, we expect the company's performance after excluding its consolidation to maintain a growth of 1% ~ 5%. Taotaoju has been consolidated since 21h2, and its performance in 21 years is 21h1 / H2, realizing 9.49/6.33 million yuan respectively (the 22-year normalized income / performance expected not to be affected by the epidemic is 230 / 34 million yuan).
Revenue side: the disturbance of the epidemic is relatively limited. We believe that the consolidation of taotaoju catering and the expansion of quick-frozen production support the overall growth of revenue
In terms of products, the income of Q1 moon cake / quick freezing / Catering / other products in 22 years was 0.1/2.7/2.2/240 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.3% / 27.7% / + 26.1% / - 11.3% respectively. In terms of quick freezing, we believe that under the repeated Spring Festival demand and epidemic situation, the quick freezing just needs to appear, superimposed with the support of the company's capacity expansion, the quick freezing business has achieved higher growth under the high base, the income of 22q1 has increased by 28% / 22% and 16% respectively compared with 21q1 / 20q1, and 22q2 is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend under the support of capacity expansion. In terms of catering, we believe that taotaoju's consolidated statement supports the realization of high growth. The income of 22q1 is 26% / 19% higher than that of 21q1 / 19q1 respectively. It is expected that the catering income of the company excluding its consolidated statement will still have a restorative growth. In terms of channels, the revenue of Q1 direct sales / distribution channels in 22 years was 370 million yuan / 360 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.9% / + 8.7% respectively; In terms of the number of dealers, in 22q1, the number of dealers in Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province / overseas increased by - 11 / 6 / 1 respectively, reaching 589 / 401 / 17. We expect that the expansion of dealers in the peak season is expected to accelerate after the epidemic is alleviated. In terms of regions, the income of Guangdong Province / outside the province / outside the province / outside the province was 6.1/1.1/0.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.6% / 15.9% / 2.7% respectively. We believe that under the low base outside the province, the disturbance caused by the epidemic is limited and taotaoju has a consolidated contribution.
Profit side: the epidemic has shown business resilience, and the overall performance has maintained steady growth
1) in terms of cost, the gross profit margin of 22q1 was 30.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3pct; 2) In terms of expenses, the expense rate during 22q1 was 20.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct. The rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 9.5% / 9.2% / 2.2% / - 0.4% respectively, with a year-on-year change of 0.7 / - 0.2/0.1/0.01pct; 3) In terms of profit, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. 22q1 net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 7.0%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.1pct. We expect that the bulk of the contribution will still be from food and catering.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: in the long run, moon cakes are expected to maintain steady growth, with the industry becoming more standardized or the moon cake market becoming more and more concentrated; The demand for quick freezing growth is higher, and its categories and channels will be continuously enriched on the basis of capacity expansion in the future; Moreover, the company arranges prefabricated dishes and cuts into the market from its best segments, such as potted vegetables. In addition, Tao taoju achieved consolidation on 21.6.30 and 22h1. Under the low base, it is expected to compensate for the impact of the epidemic to a certain extent. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 202224 will be 4.52/51.9/5.95 billion yuan, yoy + / 16% / 15% / 15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 640 / 770 / 930 million, yoy + 15% / 21% / 20%. The current share price corresponds to PE of 22-24 years, which are 21 / 17 / 14x respectively. Optimistic about the company's performance flexibility after the short-term epidemic and the stability of the moon cake business and the speed-up space of the quick-frozen business under the background of medium and long-term production expansion, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic continues to repeat, the growth of food sales is less than expected, and the recovery of catering is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks
