\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 599 Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 44.48 billion yuan, an increase of 51.20% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.804 billion yuan, an increase of 46.77% at the same time. Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 13.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.24% and a month on month increase of 19.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 648 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.91% and a month on month increase of 43.78%. In 2022q1, the revenue reached 15.273 billion yuan, an increase of 79.20% year-on-year and 15.56% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 543 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135.97% and a month on month decrease of 16.15%. The performance was in the median value of the forecast, which was in line with market expectations.
Component shipments are growing rapidly and are optimistic about the subsequent profit improvement. In 2021, the output of components of the company was 26.2gw, the shipment was 24.8gw, and the export was 21.1gw, with an increase of 33%. We expect to ship 7-8gw in 2021q4. Due to the decline of silicon wafer price in 2021q4 + the increase of the proportion of large-size shipments, the profit increased month on month. We expect the company to ship 7.5-7.6gw of 2022q1 components, with a month on month ratio of about + 69% / + 7%, contributing a profit of 430480 million yuan. In 2022q2, China's distributed and overseas demand is strong. We expect the company to ship 10-11gw, with a ring increase of about 40%. From April 2022, the price of components will be raised smoothly, and the profits will be gradually repaired. In the second half of 2022, the price of silicon wafer will be reduced, which will double the benefits of the company. The company will ship 40gw + throughout the year, realizing a simultaneous increase in volume.
210topcon has outstanding efficiency and entered the stage of mass production. The maximum efficiency of the company's TOPCON (210mm) battery laboratory reached 25.42%, and the average efficiency of the new pilot line exceeded 24.5%. In April 2022, the company's Suqian 8gwtopcon battery project has been officially launched. We expect to gradually put into operation in the second half of the year. The company will increase the layout of new technology research and development and take the lead in the industry.
Distributed systems have grown brightly and become a new driving force for performance. In 2021, the company's system shipped more than 2gw and sold about 1.8gw, of which 2021q4 was about 0.5-0.6gw, and the net profit per Watt was 0.12 yuan / W. We expect the company to ship 1GW in 2022q1, sell 0.7-0.9gw, contribute RMB 80-110 million profit and achieve rapid growth. Throughout 2022, China's demand for distributed photovoltaic is strong. We expect that the demand in 2022 will reach more than 50gw, including about 40gw for households and 10-15gw for Industry and commerce. Aiming at the distributed potential market, the company plans to ship 5-6gw in 2022, doubling the growth.
The tracking support is gradually improving, and smart energy is developing steadily. The company tracked the shipment of 1.8gw of supports in 2021, of which 0.6-0.8gw was shipped in 2021q4. Due to the rapid rise of steel prices, there was a slight loss. The chain comparison of 2022q1 has improved to achieve profit and loss balance. With the start of demand for ground power stations in the second half of 2022, the shipment and profit are better. We expect to ship 3-4gw in 2022 to achieve positive profit. The power station business has been steadily promoted. 2021q4 company's self-sustaining power generation and EPC power station delivery have contributed a profit of RMB 100150 million, and energy storage has increased R & D and market expansion.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the market photovoltaic demand exceeding our expectations and the rapid growth of household distribution, we maintain the previous profit forecast. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 38.1/51.5/6.72 billion yuan, an increase of 111% / 35% / 30%, corresponding to 27 / 20 / 15 times of PE respectively. We give the company 38 times of PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 67 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected and the competition intensifies.
