\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 79 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) )
In 2022q1, affected by the phased epidemic, the long-term competitive advantage is stable and the “buy” rating is maintained
In 2022q1, the revenue was 4.124 billion yuan, an increase of 11.39%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 648 million yuan, an increase of 12.4%, and an increase of 14.13% and 15.16% respectively under the standard of USD. Although the decline of employee attendance rate under the Vietnam north epidemic in 2022q1 has affected some output, the attendance rate has basically recovered. 2022q2 will actively adjust the production capacity and track orders, which is expected to have a limited impact on the annual performance. We maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.57/45.7/5.4 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 3.1/3.9/4.6 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 22.4/17.5/14.8 times respectively. Considering the strong demand for orders from new and old customers Vietnam and Indonesia actively expanded production and continued to maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2022q1, the top five customers maintained steady growth, the overall dollar ASP increased, and the production capacity expanded steadily
Customer split: in 2022q1, the top five customers’ revenue was RMB 1.588/8.49/6.49/468225 billion respectively, an increase of 23.09% / 14.72% / 12.82% / 0.73% / 53.17% at the same time, accounting for 39% / 21% / 16% / 11% / 5%. It is expected that Nike and Hoka will maintain a high growth trend and gradually increase the volume of new brands. Volume price split: the sales volume of 2022q1 was 51.14 million pairs, an increase of 7.09%, benefiting from the optimization of customer structure and product structure. It is expected that ASP will increase by + 6.8% year-on-year under the caliber of USD. Capacity side: there are three new factories in Yongshan / Weilin / Hongxin, Vietnam. As of 2021, the monthly capacity of the two factories is expected to reach 8 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 00000 pairs. The second phase of the new factory with a capacity of 1 million pairs will contribute capacity in 2022h2. The finished product line of the vamp factory will be put into operation in 2022. It is expected to add 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 pairs of capacity per month. The old factory is expected to continue to expand.
In 2022q1, the gross profit margin decreased slightly, the production rhythm was delayed, and the inventory was increased due to the problems of Customs closure and shipping in Guangxi
(1) profitability: the gross profit margin of 2022q1 is 25.65%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.72pct. It is mainly due to the decline of employee attendance rate under the Vietnam epidemic, which affects the output and the efficiency of the new factory. During the climbing of 2021q4, the month on month decrease of 1.23% is mainly due to the short working hours in February and the epidemic, which affects the attendance rate. At present, the attendance rate has basically recovered. It is expected that 2022q2 will make up for delayed orders through order chasing, which has a limited impact on the gross profit margin of the whole year. Expense side: the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 0.47% / 3.73% / 1.48% / – 0.26%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.04 / – 0.1 / – 0.08 / – 0.58pct. The year-on-year expense rate during the period was -0.8pct, mainly due to the increase of interest income and the exchange income brought by the appreciation of vnd against the US dollar. The net interest rate of 2022q1 was 15.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.14pct, which was relatively stable. (2) Operating capacity: the inventory in 2022q1 was 305 million yuan, an increase of 14.35% at the same time, mainly due to the improvement of raw material preparation in consideration of the customs closure and sea transportation of Guangxi port, and the delay of 2022q1 production rhythm, resulting in some raw materials not being converted into work in progress and finished products. At present, Guangxi port has resumed normal customs clearance. The net operating cash flow was RMB 380 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.51%, mainly due to the increase in taxes paid.
Risk warning: the expansion of orders and production capacity is less than expected; The deterioration of the overseas epidemic affected the commencement of construction.
