Last week’s market
In the four trading days last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.39%, and the SW auto sector fell 3.92%, outperforming the market by 1.54 percentage points. Among them, the passenger car sector fell 6.08%; The commercial bus sector rose 0.69%; The commercial truck sector fell 2.54%; The auto parts sector fell 3.31%; The auto service sector fell 0.89%.
In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) , Yangzhou Yaxingmotor Coach Co.Ltd(600213) , Xuelong Group Co.Ltd(603949) , Nanjing Aolian Ae&Ea Co.Ltd(300585) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ; The largest declines were Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) .
Industry news
1) in 2022, the maximum subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, and there will be no subsidy from next year; 2) Three departments issued documents: new energy vehicles will become an important part of rural energy transformation; 3) Ningxia: vigorously promote the application of new energy vehicles and lay out new energy infrastructure; 4) Weichai group cooperates with Qingdao municipal government to jointly build “Oriental hydrogen island”; 5) Intel and krypton official cooperation: will launch the world’s first L4 grade self driving car.
Company news
1) Byd Company Limited(002594) : in December, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 92800, with a month on month increase of 236.39% / 3%;
2) Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) : in December, the automobile sales volume was 233700, with a month on month increase of 11.77% / 4.25%, and the sales volume of Eyan was 14500, with a year-on-year increase of 98.49%; 3) Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) : in December, the sales volume was 162400, with a month on month increase of 8.17% / 32.54%, and the Euler exceeded 20000 for the first time; 4) Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 316 ~ 336 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 516.82% ~ 555.85%; 5) Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) : obtain the fixed-point notice of zero running technology project.
Industry strategy and individual stock recommendation this week
According to the preliminary statistics within the Federation of passenger cars, the wholesale / retail of narrow passenger cars increased by 6% / 19% month on month in December last year, and the industry recovery is continuing. With the continuous improvement of chip supply and the decline of the high price of main raw materials, China’s strict prevention and control makes the epidemic free from the risk of large-scale spread, and the good trend of industry recovery remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry recovery opportunities under the continuous verification of data. In terms of new energy vehicles, the decline of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile subsidies was implemented as scheduled. Although there were some impulse factors before the decline of subsidies at the end of last year, and the short-term sales volume at the beginning of the year may fluctuate, considering that the orders delayed due to chip shortage last year are expected to be delivered successively this year, we are not pessimistic about the sales volume this year; Meanwhile, if the tax credit policy of up to US $12500 for electric vehicles and bicycles in the United States is subsequently passed in the Senate, it will significantly boost the sales expectation of electric vehicles in the United States. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the latest progress. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China’s entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348); 2) Enterprises that enter the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG Chemical, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). In addition, we are optimistic about independent auto companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066).
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China’s smart electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China (such as aionvplus, Xiaopeng P5 / G9, Great Wall salon mechatron, etc.), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend, It is suggested to focus on two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei’s automobile industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent lamps / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (603197), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected; The electric transformation of Chinese and international car enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles was lower than expected.
