\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) )
The growth rate of revenue exceeded that of Q1 by 2215% year-on-year
On the evening of April 27, the company released the first quarterly report for 22 years. In 22q1, the company achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.1%. Deducting the growth rate of non attributable net profit of 8.5%, the profit is lower than the growth rate of revenue. We expect that it is related to the decline of gross profit margin caused by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. Excluding the impact of the accrued equity incentive amortization expense, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 is + 20.8% year-on-year, and the performance is in line with our and market expectations. 21h2 waterproof industry is affected by the sharp decline of new real estate construction. We judge that the recovery of the follow-up real estate policy is expected to gradually transform to the fundamental side. From 22q2, the front-end data of real estate or hit the bottom. At the same time, the new waterproof regulations are approaching the ground, and the rapid growth of roof photovoltaic is also expected to bring new increment. We continue to be optimistic about the leading position and diversified layout of the company.
The price rise of raw materials affects the increase of gross profit margin, and the price rise is expected to transmit cost pressure
The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 28.3%, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.6pct. The sharp increase in the price of raw materials such as asphalt affected the increase in the gross profit margin. From March 16, the price of the company’s main products such as coiled materials and coatings was adjusted by 10% ~ 20%. We believe that the price increase is expected to transmit the cost pressure and achieve the business goal with high quality throughout the year. In the past 21 years, the income of civil construction group reached 3.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 93%. The expansion of various categories continued to advance. Considering that the real estate is still in the downward cycle, the expansion of non real estate fields such as infrastructure construction, urban renewal, industrial and mining warehousing and logistics is expected to form a favorable supplement.
The cash to cash ratio remained at a good level, and the ability to control expenses was further enhanced
The net outflow of operating cash in 22q1 was 4.78 billion yuan, an increase of 2.41 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash to receive ratio was – 0.14 PCT to 109.1% year-on-year, and the cash to pay ratio was + 36.7 PCT to 144.7% year-on-year. The cash to receive ratio remained at a historically good level. The significant increase in the cash to pay ratio led to a large outflow of net CFO. In 21 years, the company’s accounts receivable (including bills) were + 22.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate slightly faster than the growth rate of revenue. Other accounts receivable at the end of 22q1 was 3.51 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2.63 billion yuan compared with 880 million yuan at the end of 21, Mainly due to the payment of performance bond by the company. The expense rate of 22q1 company during the period was 19.1%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.8pct, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were + 0.01 / – 0.04 / – 0.04 / – 0.73pct respectively year-on-year. The net interest rate of 22q1 company was 4.93%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.44pct. The pressure on the raw material side eroded the profitability.
The diversified layout continued to be promoted and the “buy” rating was maintained
We believe that with the increasing concentration of downstream customers and the strengthening of superimposed brand, service, channel and cost advantages, the market share of the company in the waterproof industry is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the company is also in the forefront of the industry in terms of diversified business layout such as civil building materials, coatings, thermal insulation, mortar, repair and new energy. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is predicted to be 5.28/65.0/7.98 billion yuan. Referring to the average PE of 16.0 times of the comparable company in 22 years, considering the leading position of the company and the rapid volume of new business, we recognize and give the company 30 times PE in 22 years, the target price is 63.0 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the new construction of real estate is significantly lower than expected, the oil and asphalt prices rebound sharply, and the cash flow deteriorates sharply.
