\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 2.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.123 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.69%.
The growth hormone of Kinsey pharmaceutical maintained a high growth rate of about 40%. The core subsidiary kinsay Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. performed prominently. In 22q1, it achieved a revenue of 2.648 billion (+ 43.69%), a net profit of 1.205 billion (+ 37.31%), and a net interest rate of 40.50% (- 7.14pp). The company strengthened the terminal sales of growth hormone, actively improved the proportion of long-term effect, and continuously expanded the indications of water injection and long-term effect. With the normalization of the epidemic situation and the gradual adaptation of the sales model, the new patients gradually recover, and the growth hormone is expected to continue to maintain a high-speed growth; In the future, with the development of Pediatrics, gynecology and obstetrics, oncology and other fields, Kinsey pharmaceutical is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time.
The stage of Baig varicella vaccine affected by the epidemic declined. 22q1 subsidiary Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) achieved a revenue of 138 million (- 44.27%), a net profit of 17 million (- 68.76%), and a net interest rate of. 12.32% (- 9.95pp). Covid-19 epidemic blocked the terminal sales of Baig main variety varicella vaccine, but it is still expected to be flat throughout the year. The subsidiary Huakang pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 170 million (+ 10.23%) and net profit of 09 million (- 21.55%). The subsidiary hi tech real estate realized revenue of 171 million (+ 503.38%) and net profit of 21 million (+ 485.24%).
The cost rate remained stable and the R & D investment continued to increase. 22q1 company's sales expense is 946 million yuan (+ 34.75%), the sales rate is 31.81% (+ 1.03pp), and the core subsidiary kinsay pharmaceutical growth hormone continues to strengthen terminal promotion; The management fee was 173 million yuan (+ 43.76%), the management rate was 5.81% (+ 0.54pp), and the employee salary increased; Financial rate - 0.52% (+ 0.37pp). In addition, the R & D cost was 235 million yuan (+ 71.90%), the R & D rate was 7.88% (+ 1.90pp), the R & D investment continued to maintain a high growth, the application for new indications of water acupuncture was approved, and the leuprorelin injection emulsion was approved for clinical use.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.347 billion yuan, 17.962 billion yuan and 22.094 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, 25.20% and 23.00%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.299 billion yuan, 6.654 billion yuan and 8.162 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41.02%, 25.58% and 22.66%. The company is a leader in the growth hormone industry. Under the background of centralized mining and landing of Guangdong alliance, it still benefits from the high prosperity of the industry. It is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth and maintain the "buy" rating in 2022.
Risk tip: the risk of intensified competition for growth hormone, the risk that the progress of pipeline under research is lower than expected, and the risk of drug bidding and price reduction.
