\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 51 Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved a revenue of 7.497 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of - 63.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 79.4%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 119 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 121.8%. 2022q1 performance improved month on month, turning losses into profits.
Rising raw material prices put pressure on Profitability: the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 6.63%, down 2.39 PCT from the same period last year. The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise in the price of upstream raw materials. The net interest rate of Q1 company was 2.39%, down 1.72pct from the same period last year. In terms of expense rate, Q1 company's sales expense rate, management expense rate and R & D expense rate were 1.52%, 0.39% and 1.45% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.73pct, + 0.07pct and + 0.91pct respectively. Overall, Q1 company's expenses during the period were 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 63.9%; The expense rate during the period was 3.07%, which was -0.01pct higher than that in the same period last year, and the expense control ability was stable.
The sales volume of the heavy truck industry is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the company may meet the performance inflection point: the sales volume of the heavy truck industry in the first quarter of 2022 reached 231000, with a year-on-year increase of - 56.9%. The performance of the industry is relatively cold compared with that of last year, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) the impact of the switching of emission regulations from national 5 to national 6; 2) The epidemic spread in many places in China has a great impact on logistics and infrastructure construction. With the gradual digestion of inventory vehicles and the recovery of infrastructure logistics after the epidemic, the heavy truck industry may usher in a significant growth in the second half of 2022. 2022q1 Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) group sold 55000 heavy trucks, accounting for 23.8% of the market, an increase of 6.9pct over the same period last year. As a leading enterprise in the heavy truck industry, the company will directly benefit.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading heavy truck enterprise in China, with a steady increase in the market share. However, considering that the demand of the heavy truck industry in the first half of 2022 has weakened under the influence of the switching of emission regulations and the epidemic, we lowered the company's profit forecast. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.09 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan and 1.69 billion yuan respectively, and the return on net assets will be 8.0%, 9.1% and 10.4% respectively. Maintain the investment rating of "Buy-A".
Risk tip: the recovery of industry demand is less than expected; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; Infrastructure construction started less than expected; Upstream raw material price rise risk.
