\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 1.191 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 871 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 274 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 987.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 248 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2763.8%, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
Covid-19’s influence on conventional varieties is weakened, and the core products are expected to return to high growth in 2022: due to the impact of covid-19 vaccine mass vaccination, the sales of quadruplex vaccine is under pressure in 2021. Quadruplex vaccine is the exclusive product of the company, with high R & D barriers. With the weakening of covid-19’s influence and the optimization of the company’s sales channels, we expect that the sales of quadruplex vaccine will be 3.5-4 million in 2022, and the sales revenue is expected to achieve a high growth of more than 80%.
The 13 valent pneumonia vaccine has a rapid and large-scale volume by virtue of its first mover advantage and sales advantage: in September 2021, the company’s 13 valent pneumonia vaccine was approved for listing, which is the second approved domestic 13 valent pneumonia vaccine. The listing of domestic vaccines will promote the penetration rate. The company’s 13 price pneumonia vaccine won the bid quickly. With the strong sales capacity of the company and competitive pricing compared with competitive products from abroad, it is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale volume. It is expected to sell 3.5-4 million units in 2022.
The R & D pipeline is about to enter the cashing period: through self-research + foreign cooperation, the company has built the richest vaccine product echelon in China. At present, the company has more than 30 projects under research, and 13 have entered the registration process. Among them, the registration of human diploid rabies vaccine has been verified on site; The freeze-dried varicella vaccine has obtained the summary report of phase III clinical trial and is expected to be approved in 2023; MCV4, IPV and other vaccines have completed clinical phase III; The recombinant EV71 vaccine has completed the phase II clinical trial. In addition, the pentavalent vaccine and oral live attenuated rotavirus vaccine have obtained clinical approval. The rich product echelon ensures the continuous and stable development of the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: not considering the performance increment brought by covid-19 vaccine for the time being, and considering the impact of covid-19 epidemic on conventional vaccines, we will reduce EPS from 2.90 yuan / 4.27 yuan to 2.09 yuan / 3.09 yuan in 20222023, and expect EPS to be 4.16 yuan in 2024, corresponding to 29 / 20 / 15 times of PE respectively. Considering the rapid volume of new and old vaccines of the company, the product pipeline will gradually enter the cashing period and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the R & D progress is lower than expected; Risk of sales falling short of expectations.
