\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 110 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) )
Key investment points
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 was 127 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 94.05% / + 51.97%, in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company's revenue was 1.112 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 25.00% / - 8.09%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 127 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 94.05% / + 51.97%; Deduct non net profit of 110 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 80.45% / + 38.68%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin is + 15pct / -, the same as q1.85; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 11.41%, with a month on month ratio of + 4.06pct / + 4.51pct; Q1 deduction of non parent net interest rate of 9.90%, with a month on month ratio of + 3.04pct / + 3.34pct. Q1 copper foil shipped 9000 tons, and the profit per ton recovered month on month.
The company shipped 9000 tons in Q1, an increase of about 5% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 6% month on month due to the impact of the Spring Festival. The company has an existing capacity of 43000 tons and a capacity under construction of 27000 tons, which is expected to be gradually released in q2-q3. Due to the slight impact of the epidemic on the production progress of new capacity, we expect the company to ship 55000 tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 57%. In terms of profitability, the non net profit deducted per ton of Q1 copper foil reached 12000 yuan / ton +, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the shutdown of the company's Q1 Changchun factory and Kunshan factory caused some losses. If added back, the net profit per ton of Q1 copper foil is expected to reach 13000 yuan / ton, which is flat month on month (considering the addition of Q4 impairment loss, etc.), with a year-on-year increase of about 60%. In the case of rising electricity charges, the rise of processing fees drives the net profit per ton of Q1 to be flat month on month. We expect that in 2022, with the optimization of product structure and scale effect, the profit per ton of the company's products is expected to remain high.
The company has made steady progress in capacity expansion, large quantities of overseas customers and optimized product structure. At the end of 2021, the company's production capacity was 43000 tons, the production capacity under construction in Huizhou was 12000 tons, the commissioning has been completed, and the climbing is expected to be completed in Q2. The production capacity under construction in Qinghai is 15000 tons, and Q2 is expected to be put into operation successively. We expect that the company's effective production capacity will be more than 55000 tons in 2022. In addition, the production capacity of Hubei Huangshi phase I is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023. After being put into operation, the company's production capacity will increase to 135000 tons, leading the industry in capacity expansion. In terms of product structure, the company will pay 4.5% in 2021 μ M and 4 μ The proportion of M copper foil shipments has increased to 15% ~ 20%, and we expect that the proportion will further increase to 20% + in 2022.
In 2022, the supply of medium and high-end capacity of lithium battery copper foil will remain in tight balance. According to our calculation, the global industrial demand will increase to 650000 tons in 2022, and the supply will continue to be in short supply. On the supply side, Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) 2022 will add 27000 tons of production capacity, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) add 15000 tons of production capacity, and the new production capacity of the whole industry is limited, and 4.5% μ M and 6 μ M link capacity continues to be in short supply. Since the second half of 2021, the price of copper foil processing fee has increased by 5 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan / ton. We expect that the processing fee will remain high in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 812 / 1069 / 1429 million from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.47/0.62/0.82 from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 100% / 32% / 34%. The current market value corresponds to 18 / 14 / 10 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, giving 32xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 15.04 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected and the profit level is lower than expected.
