Prefabricated dishes are one of the fastest growing sub industries in the food processing industry in recent five years. From 2014, the takeout industry began to flourish. By 2020, the epidemic gave birth to family consumption demand. The industry presents a tree development path from a few categories such as quick-frozen rice noodles to a variety of dishes, from b-end to C-end consumers, from first tier cities to second, third tier and even offline cities. At present, the industry scale exceeds 200 billion yuan, and there are more than 70000 related enterprises. A large number of market participants have poured in in recent five years.
Driving factors: cost reduction and efficiency improvement at end B, convenient and delicious at end C. For catering enterprises, the use of prefabricated dishes can reduce labor costs, reduce the back kitchen area, improve meal efficiency, ensure the stability of product taste and improve food safety and quality assurance. The penetration rate of prefabricated dishes in snacks, fast food chains, cost-effective takeout, rural kitchens, group canteens and other scenes has been increasing. For the C-end, as the post-80s and post-90s become the main group of family consumption, they are faced with pain points such as degraded cooking ability, no time and energy, uneconomical dining out and unhealthy. Under the normalization of the epidemic situation, the number of dining scenes at home has increased, and the rise of new retail channels such as box horse and Ding Dong shopping has also accelerated the consumption and popularization of prefabricated dishes.
Industry space: it is estimated that the CAGR of the prefabricated vegetable industry will be 15% in the next five years, and the scale will exceed 400 billion yuan by 2026. We believe that the prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to usher in rapid development driven by the cost reduction and efficiency increase at the b-end and the change of consumption habits at the C-end. At present, the industry is still in the early stage of penetration and can still accelerate its growth in the future. It is estimated that the scale of the prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026, and the CAGR will reach about 15% from 2021 to 2026, of which the scale of b-end prefabricated vegetables will exceed 300 billion yuan and the scale of C-end prefabricated vegetables will exceed 100 billion yuan.
Pattern evolution: the industry has just started, the competition pattern is extremely scattered, and different types of participants have opportunities: at present, the concentration of the industry is extremely scattered. The main participants can be divided into five types: professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises ( Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , steaming and stewing, Cong kitchen, etc.), agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises ( Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Longda food, etc.) Traditional quick-frozen food enterprises ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ), catering enterprises (Xibei, Haidilao, Meizhou Dongpo, etc.), retail enterprises (HEMA workshop, dingdong shopping, etc.). Different types of participants have their own advantages and disadvantages, as well as different product models and channel models:
1) professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises: Prefabricated vegetable enterprises have been working in the channels they are good at for many years, focusing on 1-2 cuisines, with rich categories, better understanding of channel demands and closer to customer needs in product creation.
2) agricultural, animal husbandry and Fishery Enterprises: they have the advantages of upstream raw materials and cost, and the profitability of deep-processing products is usually higher than that of raw rough processing products. These enterprises gradually extend downstream along the original supply chain to produce conditioning products and cooking package products. They have a better understanding of the characteristics of raw materials and strong R & D ability. At the same time, many export-oriented enterprises have strict quality control and have a foundation for industrial production.
3) traditional quick-frozen food enterprises: they usually start from the circulation market and Ka supermarket, and have a certain brand popularity in the industry. These enterprises basically focus on standardized products, with clear product creation path, large-scale advantages in many production bases and strong channel distribution ability. At the same time, the main product quick-frozen food also has high requirements for cold chain logistics, so its cold chain logistics capacity is also stronger than other types of enterprises. 4) Catering enterprises: catering enterprises can give full play to the brand advantages of offline stores and focus on products
Order your own signature dishes or hard dishes that are difficult to make at home, and the product has a good degree of reduction.
5) retail enterprises: the main consumers of new retail have a high degree of coincidence with the C-end consumers of prefabricated dishes. The accumulated consumption big data is more conducive to insight into consumers’ preferences and accurate sales. The laying of the front warehouse also laid a good logistics foundation for the prefabricated vegetables.
Industry rating and investment strategy: considering that the industry is in the early stage of rapid development, the industry is given a “recommended” rating. We believe that traditional quick-frozen food enterprises are more likely to become national leaders and give full play to the potential energy of single products. Professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises plough deep into the region and can become small and beautiful enterprises. For upstream agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, prefabricated dishes are a rare window of business transformation. If the product power advantage is prominent and the b-end and C-end distribution channels are quickly established, it is possible to produce a dark horse enterprise.
Focus on individual stocks: it is recommended to focus on: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) ; Suggestions: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Longda food, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) .
Risk tips: 1) too many short-term participants due to low industry threshold; 2) Risk of intensified industry competition; 3) Food quality and safety risks; 4) Cold chain logistics transportation risk; 5) Economic downside risk; 6) Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk; 7) Focus on the uncertainty of the company’s future performance; 8) Future uncertainty of industry penetration.
