\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
Events
On the evening of April 28, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue of 2022q1 was 342 million yuan, an increase of 3.28% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, with a decrease of 23.59%; Deduct non RMB 34 million, with a decrease of 33.6%.
Key investment points
The performance is in line with expectations, and the rise of raw materials erodes profits
The company’s revenue in 2022q1 was 342 million yuan, an increase of 3.28% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, with a decrease of 23.59%; Deduct non RMB 34 million, with a decrease of 33.6%. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 is 31.3% (- 6.5pct), which is caused by the rise of raw materials; The net profit margin of 2022q1 is 12% (- 4.2pct), which is caused by the decrease of gross profit margin and the increase of selling expense rate. The sales expense rate of 2022q1 is 14.77% (+ 1.3pct), which is due to the one-time confirmation of advertising expenses of 6-7 million yuan. At the end of 2022q1, the contract liabilities were 74 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 11 million yuan and a year-on-year increase of 16 million yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was 97 million yuan, an increase of 49% at the same time; Among them, the payment received in 2022q1 was 390 million yuan, an increase of 8.4% at the same time.
The epidemic disturbed the first quarter, with high growth in emerging markets
In terms of products, the revenue of milk containing beverages in 2022q1 was 328 million yuan, an increase of 1.5% at the same time; The revenue of other products was 12 million yuan, an increase of 90.3% at the same time. In terms of channels, the sales revenue of distribution channels in 2022q1 was 331 million yuan, an increase of 2.6% at the same time, which was due to the impact on the delivery progress under the disturbance of the epidemic; The revenue from direct channels was 09 million yuan, an increase of 27.8%.
Regionally, in 2022q1, the revenue of e-commerce in East China / Central China / Southwest China / North China / South China / Northeast China / Northwest China / e-commerce was 178 / 0.7/0.55/0.05/0.14/0.04/0.03/0.11 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 1% / 1.4% / – 3.4% / 3% / 82% / 66% / 113% / 6% / 3% respectively. There was significant growth in weak regions and the progress of investment attraction was smooth. At the end of 2022q1, there were 2666 dealers, with a net increase of 16.
Profit forecast
At present, the company accelerates brand upgrading, improves sales channels and strengthens the construction of marketing team; It has established a sales network in more than 30 provinces across the country, gradually explored and cultivated the market by deeply cultivating the key core market and gradually radiating the “regional distribution model” of driving the surrounding regional market, and strive to become a national brand in 3-5 years through stepped market development. We are optimistic about the company’s continued large-scale new products and national expansion. It is expected that the EPS will be 1.46/1.75/2.10 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 21 / 18 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, new product promotion is less than expected, raw materials rise sharply, production capacity is less than expected, single product risk, etc.
