\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
Undervalued coal giant, with scarce production capacity growth logic, is covered for the first time. The company rated “buy” is a super large central coal enterprise. The “a + H” is listed in two places. The four business industrial chains of coal, coal chemical industry, electric power and coal mine equipment are integrated. The revenue and gross profit mainly come from coal business, followed by coal chemical industry. We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 23.407/27.504/30.276 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 76%, 18% and 10%, equivalent to EPS of 1.77/2.07/2.28 yuan / share respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 4.6/3.9/3.6 times respectively. Considering the upward movement of the price center of power coal long-term association, the company’s coking coal pricing is partial to marketization, the company has the endogenous growth of scarce production capacity, and the coal chemical business is expected to contribute to a certain performance elasticity, In recent years, the asset quality has been continuously optimized and covered for the first time, giving the company a “buy” rating.
Coal business: rich in resources and reserves, with scarce capacity growth
At the end of 2021, the proved reserves reached 14.255 billion tons, significantly higher than peers with the same capacity. The company’s consolidated mines and associated mines have a total equity production capacity of 126 million tons, including 107 million tons of thermal coal, accounting for 85%, 19 million tons of coking coal, accounting for 15%. The company’s total equity production capacity under construction is 25.64 million tons, and the proportion of new equity production capacity is 20.3%. It is a scarce leading enterprise with capacity growth in the industry.
Coal chemical industry business: the downstream of the industrial chain has been expanded, and the capacity advantage of new coal chemical industry is prominent
The company’s coal chemical industry is mainly located in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, including 1.45 million tons / year of methanol, 2.05 million tons / year of polyolefin and 1.75 million tons / year of urea. China Coal Shaanxi Yulin phase II has passed the EIA and will increase the company’s Polyolefin equity production capacity by 900000 tons / year after completion.
Coal mine equipment business: the output value of coal mine equipment has increased year by year, and the gross profit margin is relatively stable
The market share of medium and high-end motors, medium and high-end scraper conveyors and medium and high-end shearers developed and produced by the company ranks first in China. In recent five years, the business has continued to grow, and the gross profit margin has remained in the range of 15% – 17%, with strong profitability. It is expected that the intelligent transformation of China’s coal mines will continue to promote the steady growth of this business.
Risk tips: (1) the risk of coal price falling beyond expectations (2) the risk of safe production (3) the risk of new production capacity falling short of expectations (4) the risk of information lag or untimely update may exist in the public data used in the research report
