In the recent event, the new energy related index showed a sharp correction. As of January 9, 2022, the weekly decline of photovoltaic equipment (Shenwan) reached 9.4%, and the correction range from the high level was 23.6%; Wind power equipment (Shenwan) fell 8.7% in the week, 24% from the high level; The new energy vehicle index (884076. WI) fell 6% this week, with a correction range of 14% from the high level.
Key investment points
The short-term photovoltaic industry has suffered bad, and it continues to be optimistic in the medium and long term. This wave of stock price correction started from the price reduction of silicon wafers in Longji and Zhonghuan. On November 30, Longji adjusted the price of silicon wafers for the first time, with a range of 7% – 10%. In December, Longji’s official website reduced the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers for the second time, and the sizes of M10, M6 and G1 silicon wafers were adjusted from 6.2, 5.32 and 5.12 yuan / piece to 5.85, 5.03 and 4.83 yuan / piece respectively, with a reduction range of 5.7%, 5.5% and 5.7%, At present, the whole silicon wafer market is in surplus. The price of silicon material manufacturers has also begun to decrease, and they have quoted a low price of 220000 yuan / ton. The industrial chain survey reflects that the demand is poor in the short term, the peak season is not prosperous, the competition is fierce, and the production capacity is oversupplied. Therefore, the market is worried about the industry. It is expected that after the industrial chain price tends to stabilize, the downstream operators feel that the price bottoms out periodically, and some demand will start to start, which is likely to be not light in the off-season of 2022q1, The photovoltaic industry can have a new rising logic. According to the component export data, the export volume in November was 8.25gw, a month on month decline of nearly 20%, which is related to the high base of Christmas and October, and the overseas wait-and-see mood is also heavy. With the price return of photovoltaic industry chain, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations.
The subsidy for new energy vehicles declined by 30%, the new energy vehicle insurance and Tesla announced price increases, and the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 300000 yuan / ton, which affected the market sentiment in the short term. work
The Ministry of information technology, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. 1) for new energy vehicles in non-public areas, the subsidy will decline by 30% in 2022 on the basis of 2021, of which the subsidy for EV vehicles with a range of more than 400km will be reduced from 18000 yuan to 12600 yuan, and the subsidy for EV vehicles with a range of 300-400km will be reduced from 13000 yuan to 9100 yuan; 2) The subsidy for new energy vehicles in the public sector has declined by 20%; 3) The subsidy for new energy vehicles will continue until December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after 2023 will no longer be subsidized; 4) The ceiling of 2 million vehicles was lifted. In addition, on December 27, 2021, new energy vehicle insurance was implemented, and some medium and high-end electric vehicle insurance was increased. Tesla‘s national average was + 10%, and the price of Xiaopeng’s whole line models increased by 3% – 18%. In addition, the recent sharp rise in the price of lithium carbonate, with the price exceeding 300000 yuan / ton, the seasonal production reduction of China’s salt lakes in winter, the election of Chile’s left wing, the centralized investment of lithium iron phosphate capacity, and the 10% reduction of lithium ore shipping guidelines in Pilbara, Australia, have exacerbated the tension between supply and demand of lithium resources. Subsequently, Tesla announced a price increase, and the price of model 3 increased by 10000 yuan. The market is worried that the price rise will affect the demand for downstream terminal electric vehicles, and the short-term sentiment has been affected. Recently, leading battery enterprises have mobilized employees for the Spring Festival. It is expected that the emission capacity in 2022q1 will be the same or slightly lower than that in 2021q4, and the prosperity is expected to continue,
Uncertainty in us Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) policy and Chile’s political environment affected market expectations. Recently, Democratic congressman Manchin of the United States raised objections to the 1.75 trillion “rebuilding a better” bill. If he did not agree, the bill would not be passed in the Senate. It needs the approval of 50 Democratic senators. It is expected that the bill will probably be postponed, and then Biden’s team will communicate with him, However, this incident has also aroused the market’s concern about the US Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) policy, for fear of encountering some obstacles and the policy can not be implemented smoothly. In December 2021, Chile’s presidential election, Gabriel boric of the left wing won. Chile’s right wing is more friendly to mining enterprises and advocates the introduction of overseas mining enterprise investment. The radical left wing emphasizes ecological commitment. It has proposed to increase the royalty, which may increase the resource tax of mining enterprises, may also have an impact on the future lithium resource expansion projects in Chile, and may also implement nationalization, Chile accounts for half of the global lithium reserves and 25% of the global lithium resource supply in 2020. In the medium and long term, Chile’s left wing has increased the uncertainty of lithium carbonate supply.
Investment suggestions: 1) the medium and long-term development trend of new energy is determined. From the perspective of PV module production scheduling in January and wind power bidding in 2021, the scenery in 2022 is a big year of sales, and the downward price of the industrial chain will affect profits. It is suggested to pay attention to auxiliary materials, inverters, downstream operators and other links that are not affected by the price decline of the main industrial chain; 2) 2022 is the last year of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile subsidy, and the upper limit of 2 million vehicles has been relaxed. Coupled with the launch of new models by various automobile enterprises, it is expected that the industry will still maintain a high outlook this year, pay attention to lithium carbonate with the best profitability and lithium battery with price rise expectations, and pay attention to the intelligence of electric vehicles.
