Event: on January 12, the central bank released social finance and financial data for 2021. At the end of December, the stock scale of social finance was 314.13 trillion, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year (the growth rate increased by 0.2pct month on month). In the whole year, social finance increased by 31.35 trillion, 3.44 trillion less than the previous year and 5.68 trillion more than 2019. In December, social finance increased by 2.4 trillion, an increase of 683.6 billion year-on-year. At the end of December, M2 and M1 increased by 9% and 3.5% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pct month on month. Our comments are as follows:
The growth rate of stock social finance continued to pick up, mainly driven by corporate bonds and local government bonds. At the end of December, the stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to pick up. In December, social finance increased by 2.4 trillion, an increase of 683.6 billion year-on-year; The main contribution comes from corporate bonds and government bonds. The issuance of government bonds remained relatively fast, increasing by 1.17 trillion in December, an increase of 451.9 billion over the same period last year; Corporate bonds increased by 246.6 billion, an increase of 202.4 billion year-on-year. RMB loans increased by 1.03 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 110.1 billion, slightly lower than expected; Or related to insufficient credit demand of entity enterprises and slow recovery of real estate sales. Off balance sheet financing continued to decline (entrusted loans – 41.6 billion, trust loans – 454.9 billion, undiscounted silver notes – 156 billion), with a total decrease of 652.5 billion in the current month. The new stock financing was 112.5 billion, basically the same year-on-year.
The issuance of 21q4 local government bonds has been accelerated, and the Ministry of Finance recently held an Expert Symposium to clarify that the active fiscal policy will continue to be implemented in 2022. It is expected that the fiscal policy will gradually increase, the boosting effect of relevant infrastructure investment on the economy is expected, and the subsequent social finance growth is expected to continue to pick up.
In December, the growth of medium and long-term loans was weak, and the demand for physical financing was still insufficient. At the end of 2021, the balance of RMB loans increased by 11.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1bp month on month. In December, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 131.6 billion. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents account for 61.3% of the new loans, and the low proportion of medium and long-term loans reflects the insufficient financing demand of entities.
(1) in terms of corporate loans, the long-term growth in mid December was weak, reflecting insufficient effective credit demand. In December, medium – and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 339.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 210.7 billion. On the one hand, the financing demand driven by enterprises is still insufficient due to the frequent outbreak of epidemic diseases in all parts of China, dual control of energy consumption, credit default risk of real estate enterprises and other factors; On the other hand, it may be related to the decline of bond interest rate and the crowding out of credit demand by corporate bond issuance financing demand. In the whole year, the amount of medium and long-term corporate loans is not weak (in 2021, the medium and long-term corporate loans increased by 92300, an increase of 430 billion year-on-year). Considering that the large issuance of local bonds in the fourth quarter will bring supporting financing needs for infrastructure projects, the medium and long-term credit needs of follow-up enterprises will be supported to a certain extent.
(2) in terms of resident loans, the medium and long-term growth was lower than expected, reflecting the slow recovery of real estate sales. In December, the new resident loan was 371.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 191.9 billion. Among them, the medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 355.8 billion, an increase of 83.4 billion year-on-year and 226.3 billion month on month. Or it is related to the weak demand side of residents and the slow recovery of real estate sales at the end of the year. From the current real estate financial policy, the policy encourages banks to meet the reasonable housing needs of residents, and the supply of bank mortgage loans shows a warming trend; Follow up mortgage loan growth needs to pay attention to the recovery of residents’ demand side.
M1 growth picked up month on month, which may reflect the marginal relief of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises. At the end of December, M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pct month on month. M1 increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pct month on month; This reflects the recent improvement in the financing environment of real estate enterprises and the marginal relief of cash flow pressure. In terms of deposits, deposits increased by 1.17 trillion in December, an increase of 1.36 trillion year-on-year. Among them, resident deposits increased by 1.89 trillion, an increase of 215.7 billion year-on-year; Corporate deposits increased by 1.37 trillion, an increase of 271.1 billion year-on-year. Fiscal deposits decreased by 1.03 trillion in the current month, an increase of 76.2 billion year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the accelerated commencement and implementation of infrastructure projects and the strength of local fiscal expenditure.
Investment suggestion: select high growth track and high-quality banks with first mover advantage or good regional growth. At present, the correction of real estate regulation policies + the force of stable growth policies + deterministic and stable upward performance will help catalyze the market of the sector and enter the left opportunity period. It is recommended to select banks with first mover advantages in the field of wealth management, such as customer base, sales channels and product service system (such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), and high-quality banks with location advantages and market-oriented system and mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ).
Risk tip: the economy stalled downward, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
