Event:
Recently, China Automobile Association released automobile production and sales data in December 2021.
Comments:
In December, automobile sales continued to grow month on month, with a year-on-year decrease narrowed. In December, the automobile production and sales volume were 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Compared with November, the output growth rate changed from negative to positive, and the decline of sales volume narrowed by 7.5 percentage points; The month on month growth was 12.5% and 10.5% respectively. In 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years. In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of passenger cars in December were 2.527 million and 2.422 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and 2.0% respectively. The growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with November, with a month-on-month increase of 13.2% and 10.5% respectively. In 2021, the production and sales of passenger cars were 21.408 million and 21.482 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 6.5% respectively. In December, 250000 luxury cars were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% and a month on month increase of 18%; The sales of independent brands reached 930000, with a year-on-year increase of 4% and a month on month increase of 12%; Mainstream joint venture brands sold 930000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a month on month increase of 19%.
In December, new energy vehicles maintained a high growth momentum, and the penetration rate continued to rise. In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 13.4% and 18.0% respectively. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December were 488000 and 498000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times, and a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and 16.6% respectively. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 3.359 million and 3.334 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.1%, of which the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 20.6%; In 2021, the penetration rate reached 13.4%, higher than that of the previous year 8pct. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 39%, an increase of 1.6pct over the previous month; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 32.7%, up 13.3pct from the previous month; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.3%, down 0.3pct from last month.
New energy vehicle enterprises have been built well as a whole and Byd Company Limited(002594) ranks first. In December, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) sold 661000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 11.47%; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) sold 233700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11.77%; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the sales volume was 162400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.17%; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) sales volume was 178000, a year-on-year decrease of 11.26%; Geely sold 158800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among the new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December Byd Company Limited(002594) was 93900, a year-on-year increase of 225.73%; Tesla China sold 70800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 177%; Xiaopeng and ideal maintained high-speed growth, Weilai’s growth rate was relatively backward, and Nezha, Zero run and other second-line new forces accelerated to catch up.
Investment suggestion: with the continuous improvement of chip supply and the peak sales season, automobile production and sales achieved double-digit month on month growth in December, which has achieved month on month growth for four consecutive months, in line with expectations. The follow-up inventory replenishment trend appears, which will drive the demand of parts and components to continue to repair. The new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy driven to market driven, and is expected to maintain a high growth momentum in 2022. In addition, the state has promoted the “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern and accelerated the development of fuel cell vehicle industry. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after improved chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
Risk tip: chip supply improvement is less than expected, automobile production and sales are lower than expected, raw material prices rise sharply, competition intensifies, trade friction, etc.
