Event:
China Construction Machinery Industry Association released the excavator sales data in December 2021. In December 2021, the 25 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 24038 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 23.76%; Among them, 15423 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%; The export sales volume was 8615 units, a year-on-year increase of 104.58%.
Comments:
Excavator sales improved in December, and the annual sales volume achieved positive growth. In December 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 24038 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.76% and a month on month increase of 17.58%; China’s sales volume was 15423 units, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54% and a month on month increase of 10.05%; From January to December 2021, the cumulative sales volume of excavators was 342700, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63%; China’s sales reached 274300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%; In terms of tonnage structure, in December, the sales volume of large excavation 2105 units, medium excavation 3820 units and small excavation 9498 units decreased by 40.15%, 48.73% and 41.91% respectively year-on-year, and increased by 11.91%, 14.82% and 7.86% respectively month on month; From January to December, the total sales volume of large-scale excavation was 33500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.77%; The cumulative sales volume of zhongdig was 77800 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%; The cumulative sales volume of small excavation was 162900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.99%.
The prosperity of downstream industries rebounded, and the growth rate is expected to be “low before high” in 2022. According to incomplete statistics of Mysteel, 4981 projects were started in 26 provinces in China in December 2021, with a month on month increase of 3%; The total investment was 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 67% year-on-year and 68% month on month. Meanwhile, at the central economic work conference held in December, it was required that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, moderately advance infrastructure investment and superimpose the advance approval of special bonds. It is expected that the issuance rate of special bonds in 2022 will be faster than that in 2021, which will effectively support the implementation and commencement of infrastructure projects, and the prosperity of downstream infrastructure industry will gradually recover, The demand for construction machinery will increase. Due to the high base factor of 2021q1 data, it is expected that 2022q1 is still in a small negative growth rate, Q2 is expected to return to positive, and the growth rate will show a “low before high”.
Export sales continued to break new records. In December 2021, the export volume of excavators was 8651, with a year-on-year increase of 104.58%, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 33.98%. The total export reached 68400 units, about twice the cumulative export sales in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 96.96%. The monthly and cumulative export sales reached a new high. On the one hand, the overseas demand recovered, on the other hand, the internationalization strategy and overseas layout of Chinese enterprises were gradually improved and mature, and the core competitiveness of products was continuously improved. With the stability of the overseas epidemic and the resumption of production by overseas enterprises, it is expected that export sales will be affected to some extent and the growth rate will drop.
Investment suggestion: in December 2021, excavator sales continued to improve month on month, and the cumulative sales maintained positive growth. The central economic work conference set a stable tone and appropriately advanced infrastructure investment. It is expected that the issuance of special bonds will accelerate in 2022, and the prosperity of the downstream infrastructure industry will rebound, effectively supporting the demand for construction machinery and equipment. Pay attention to the leaders in the construction machinery industry: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157), Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) (000425).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, decline in industry prosperity, deterioration of overseas trade environment, rise in raw material prices, less than expected issuance of special bonds, less than expected infrastructure / real estate investment, etc.
