\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event overview: on January 11, 2022, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be about 6.6 ~ 7.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11% ~ 27%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 5.6 ~ 6.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 16% ~ 39%.
2021q4 chip supply resumed, and the annual performance exceeded expectations. According to the median forecast of the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 7.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 6.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 28%, and the annual performance exceeded market expectations. In 2021, the company sold 2.14 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%. According to the estimation of the announcement, the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021q4 is about 1.024-2.124 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 131% ~ 380%, and the profit has doubled significantly. In 2021q4, the company sold 651000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 2% / month on month increase of + 39%, and the sales of GAC motor / ea\’an / GF / geben were + 47% / + 16% / + 47% / + 31% respectively. The chip shortage was alleviated in 2021q4, which exceeded expectations. The high-end intelligent upgrading of “Gemini” and the entry of Liangtian into a new round of product launch cycle all drive the company’s sales upward. Under the background of rising volume and price, the profit of 2021q4 exceeded the market expectation.
Independent and joint ventures continued the strong model cycle, and capacity expansion boosted the steady growth of sales in 2022. 1) In terms of production capacity, the first plant in ai\’an is expected to expand to 200000 vehicles / year in February this year, and the second plant is expected to have an annual production capacity of 200000 vehicles. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of this year, and the annual production capacity of ai\’an may reach 200000 / 400000 vehicles in 2022 / 2023. Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 “new energy vehicles” (line 4) and tnga series engine construction project were started on schedule. Guangben’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles was also approved. 2) In terms of new cars, independent and joint ventures will continue the strong model cycle in 2022. In January 2022, the fast charging aionsplus and aionlxplus equipped with three lidars with a range of 1008km will be listed. The fast charging + long-range model is expected to drive the sales volume of ea\’an to continue to rise. Guangben’s “civic sister car” model has been on the market for two weeks, with orders breaking 10000, and Guangfeng luxury MPV Saina is a hot seller. In the future, as guangben’s Electric Vehicle E: NP1 and Guangfeng’s fenglanda, the new Camry, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x are listed one after another, Liangtian is expected to start an upward sales cycle.
The mixed reform of Ethiopia and Angola is imminent, which is expected to drive the reconstruction of the company’s valuation system. In November Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2021, it announced the reorganization of EA, which undertook the R & D personnel in the pure electricity field of GAC Research Institute and became the company’s independent pure electricity new energy platform. After the reorganization, gac-e\’an’s registered capital increased to 6 billion yuan, capital and technology were enabled, the integration of “production, marketing and research” was realized, and its competitiveness was further strengthened. At present, the company is actively promoting ESOP and subsequent round a financing. After that, AIAN will seek an appropriate opportunity to go public, build an independent capital market platform and form a market-oriented incentive mechanism to promote the long-term sustainable development of the company. With reference to the valuation of Xinli PS and in combination with our sales forecast of ai\’an in 2022, this mixed reform is expected to reconstruct the company’s valuation system. With the upgrading of the main models of GAC motor and ai\’an and the landing of high-end models, the independent “Gemini” is expected to rise strongly, driving the company’s profitability to continue to rise.
Investment suggestion: we raised the profit forecast for 2021-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be RMB 7.032/91.51/11.040 billion respectively, corresponding to 22 / 17 / 14 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company grasps the opportunity of the rise of the new energy market and takes multiple measures in technology and system. The independent rise is expected to become a new growth point of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the chip supply is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
