\u3000\u3000 Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) (600161)
Key investment points
Event: on January 10, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 4.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 764 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.53%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 766 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.65%.
Under the influence of low base, Q4 achieves high business growth. In 2021, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.109 billion yuan (+ 19.24%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 764 million yuan (+ 19.53%). Under the influence of the epidemic last year, the company took many measures to improve the pulp collection volume and accelerate the construction of new pulp stations this year, and the performance returned to steady growth. In terms of quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.291 billion (+ 59.39%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 206 million (+ 44.72%) in Q4. The growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be related to the increase in sales of blood products, the capital increase to Chengdu Rongsheng and the low base of 2020q4.
The layout of pulp station continues to expand, and the terminal coverage effect is remarkable. The company has set up 12 new pulp stations in Gansu, Hebei and Jiangsu, and plans to build three blood production bases in Yong’an, Yunnan and Lanzhou, with a design capacity of 1200 tons, and the pulp stations continue to expand; Meanwhile, the company continues to carry out professional academic promotion, covering a total of 19750 terminals, including 12247 medical institutions and 7323 retail pharmacies.
Several research projects have made progress and consolidated their leading position. In 2021q4, Lanzhou blood made human prothrombin complex completed phase III clinical and obtained a summary report, which has good safety and effectiveness; The core variety Chengdu Rongsheng recombinant human coagulation factor VIII for injection has completed phase III clinical and obtained a summary report. At present, there are only two imported products in China; The core variety Chengdu Rongsheng intravenous injection of human immunoglobulin (pH4, 10%) has completed phase III clinical and obtained a summary report. There is no product on the market in China. Among other projects under research, Chengdu Rongsheng intravenous injection of cytomegalovirus human immunoglobulin and Lanzhou blood made human prothrombin complex are in phase III, Chengdu Rongsheng human prothrombin complex is in the final stage, Chengdu Rongsheng recombinant human coagulation factor Ⅶ a for injection has carried out phase I clinical, and Wuhan blood made intravenous injection of covid-19 human immunoglobulin (pH4) is in China The UAE was approved to conduct clinical trials.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: referring to the performance express of 2021, we raised the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 to 4.109, 4.913 and 5.899 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.24%, 19.58% and 20.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 764 million yuan, 905 million yuan and 1089 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, 19.96% and 20.34%. Considering that the company’s pulp production volume and the number of pulp stations are leading in the industry, the profit per ton of pulp is expected to continue to increase in the future with the improvement of efficiency and the release of production capacity. In addition, the products under research such as SEPC and eight factors of restructuring provide long-term space to maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of integration falling short of expectations, the risk of price fluctuation of blood products, and the risk of decline in gross profit margin of blood products business.
