\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (688116)
Key investment points
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be 81-101 million yuan, with a month on month change of - 2% to + 22%, in line with market expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 285-305 million, with a year-on-year increase of 165.73% - 184.38%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 81-101 million, with a year-on-year increase of 167% - 233%, with a month on month change of - 2% to + 22%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 252-272 million, with a year-on-year increase of 229.75% to 255.92%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 76-96 million in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 5% - 33%.
21q4 company's shipment increased month on month, its profitability increased slightly month on month, and achieved high growth in the whole year. We expect Q4 company to ship nearly 11000 tons in 2021, with a month on month increase of about 15%. We expect to ship 33000 ~ 34000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 150%. With the gradual release of production capacity, we expect that the annual shipment in 2022 is expected to reach more than 70000 tons. In terms of profitability, the company's pricing method is linked with the NMP price. We expect that the Q4 single ton profit in 2021 will be 75-9000 yuan / ton, the deduction of non single ton net profit will be 7000-8700 yuan / ton, the deduction of non single ton net profit will be flat and slightly increased month on month, and the annual single ton profit in 2021 will be 75-8000 yuan / ton. The subsidiary Xinna environmental protection has arranged a 45000 ton NMP recovery project, and we expect to contribute part of the production capacity in 2022. The self supply proportion of raw materials will increase in the future. We expect that the company's net profit per ton will have further room to rise in the future.
Carbon nanotube conductive agent fully benefits from the upgrading of lithium battery technology, and its permeability is expected to continue to improve. Carbon nano conductive agent is conducive to improving the energy density and fast charging performance of the battery. Compared with the traditional conductive agent, carbon black has obvious cost performance advantages. We expect that the use proportion of carbon nano conductive agent will be further increased in the future, and the demand for carbon nanotubes will continue to increase. Carbon nanotube products continue to iterate. The first generation is mainly used in ordinary iron lithium batteries, the second generation is used in ordinary ternary batteries, and the third generation is used in high nickel ternary batteries. However, the second-generation products have better conductivity. We expect that some iron lithium batteries will switch to the second-generation products in 2022, and the price and profit of the second-generation products are better. The company will benefit from the upgrading of product structure, and the profit level is expected to rise steadily in 2022.
With leading technology advantages, the construction of production capacity is accelerated, and the leading position of the company is strengthened. The company can mass produce the first to third generation products. We expect that the shipment of the first generation products will be about 35%, the second generation products will account for about 60%, and the third generation products will account for nearly 5% in 2021. In 2021, the company has reserved the fourth to sixth generation products, and the fourth generation products have been sampled, forming a significant technical generation difference with competitors and fully enjoying the excess return of leading technology. The company has expanded its production globally. We expect to gradually release 50000 tons of new capacity in Changzhou in 2022, and 8000 tons of new capacity in the United States in 2023-2024. We expect that the production capacity is expected to exceed 100000 tons by the end of 2022. With the gradual release of new production capacity, we expect that the production capacity is expected to reach more than 70000 tons in 2022, more than doubling continuously.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the accelerated penetration of carbon nanotubes and the rapid development of the industry, the company as a leader, layout scale and cost advantages, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 3.1/6.3/955 million yuan to 297 / 706 / 1136 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 177% / 138% / 61%, corresponding to 116x / 49x / 30x PE, giving 70 times PE in 2022 and a target price of 213 yuan, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the policy is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified
