\u3000\u3000 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460)
Key investment points
Key point 1 layout of global high-quality lithium sources and diversified resource supply
As the only lithium extraction enterprise in China with brine, ore and mica, the company has arranged global high-quality lithium sources, and has formed a stable, high-quality and diversified raw material supply system with Australian mountmarion, Pilbara and Ningdu Heyuan, Ireland Avalonia spodumene mine, caucharioloroz, Mariana, Qinghai haixiliang lithium salt lake and Sonora lithium clay as resource reserves, At present, the equity production capacity is 26.11 million tons of LCE. Among them, Mount Marion and Pilbara spodumene ores are the main sources, with a capacity of 450000 tons and 160000 tons of lithium concentrate respectively. In the future, with the gradual operation of Salt Lake and lithium clay projects, the supply of lithium source will be guaranteed.
Key point 2: the supply and demand continues to be unbalanced, and the lithium price is expected to run at a high level. With the continuous promotion of the production expansion plans of spodumene, salt lake and mica at home and abroad, the supply side capacity is expected to be released. It is estimated that the global lithium resource supply will be about 1.42 million tons by 2025. On the demand side, due to the rise of new fields such as new energy vehicles, solar energy storage and 5g and the stable and large-scale capacity of electronic consumption fields such as smart phones and computers, the installed capacity of lithium batteries has increased significantly. It is expected that by 2025, the global demand for lithium resources will be about 151 tons, the supply gap will reach 90000 tons, the supply spear will continue to deepen, and the lithium price is expected to run at a high level, driving the growth of the company’s performance.
Key point 3 M & A, capital increase and project expansion are carried out simultaneously, and the capacity release is expected to continue to rise. Under the condition that the lithium price is expected to continue to rise, the company accelerates the layout of lithium resources, steadily advances the M & a plan and project investment, and ensures the smooth progress of the capacity expansion plan of cauchari olaroz, Mariana and Sonora projects. Under the condition that the capacity expansion plan of cauchari olaroz, Mariana and Sonora projects is carried out, the company will successively acquire SPV, millennium, bacanora, SRN and LiTiO in the Netherlands, so as to expand the territory of lithium, No less than 200000 tons of LCE will be formed in 2025 and no less than 600000 tons of LCE lithium supply will be formed in the future. By signing a series of capital increase plans and project contracts, we will promote the continuous and large-scale lithium salt business, and it is expected to form a capacity of 7000 tons of metal lithium and 50000 tons of new lithium battery materials in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation as the only leading enterprise in China with a full range of lithium extraction technologies, the company has diversified supply of lithium sources, rich and complete products and stable operation. The company’s M & A, capital increase and project expansion are carried out simultaneously, and the production capacity is expected to be improved. Chengfeng new energy vehicles and other downstream industries are booming, which is expected to drive the company’s performance growth. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize a total operating revenue of RMB 126.06/27755/33593 billion, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 3.523/72.36/8137 billion, a diluted EPS of 2.45/5.03/5.66 and a corresponding PE of 51.89/25.46/22.46. It will be covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected; The epidemic spread beyond expectations; Capacity release was less than expected
