\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030)
Key investment points
Performance overview
On January 12, 2022, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the performance express. In 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) achieved an operating revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%; The weighted average return on net assets was 12.01%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.58pct. Q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 18.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.0%, and the net profit of revenue exceeded the expected growth.
Expected high growth of multiple business lines
In 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) achieved an operating revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, which was judged to be due to the bright operating performance of multiple business lines. In terms of brokerage business, the stock market was highly active in 2021, and the average daily stock based turnover of the whole market increased by 25% year-on-year to 1.1 trillion. It is speculated that the market share of CITIC’s turnover will further increase, promoting the rapid growth of brokerage business income; In terms of investment banking, the market share of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shares (including convertible bonds) and bond underwriting scale in 2021 was 19% / 13% respectively, ranking first in the industry; In terms of asset management business, the company’s active management capability continued to improve, and the scale of Huaxia Fund Management increased steadily. At the end of 21q3, the proportion of CITIC’s active management scale increased to 82%. By the end of 2021, the scale of Huaxia Fund Management reached 961.9 billion (wind caliber), an increase of 25% over the beginning of the year.
Investment banks benefit from a comprehensive registration system
In December 2021, the central economic work conference proposed to fully implement the stock issuance registration system. We judge that the relevant policies are expected to be implemented this year. The reform of registration system puts forward higher requirements for the underwriting ability, pricing ability and sales ability of securities companies, and the head securities companies with rich project experience and sufficient talent reserves will benefit more. In 2021, the IPO underwriting scale Cr5 accounted for more than 50%, of which Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) accounted for as much as 18%. It is judged that investment banking leaders such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) will continue to benefit from the dividends of the comprehensive registration system reform in the future.
A + H allotment is about to land
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued the share allotment plan on February 26, 2021, which plans to raise no more than 28 billion, of which no more than 19 billion is used to develop capital intermediary business. On November 26, 2021, the company’s share allotment was approved by the CSRC. We judge that the share allotment is about to be implemented, which will effectively supplement capital ammunition and expand capital intermediary and other businesses.
Profit forecast and valuation
The leading position of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is stable, and the rapid growth of multiple business lines promotes the performance to exceed expectations. It will continue to benefit from the dividends of capital market reform in the future. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 17% / 20%, corresponding to BPS of 17.57/19.17 yuan per share. Raise the target price to RMB 32.50, corresponding to pb1.5 in 2022 8x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The macro economy has dropped sharply; The market trading activity dropped sharply; The progress of market reform was less than expected.
