\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: the company released the 2021 performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be about 6.6 billion yuan to 7.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 11% to 27% compared with the same period of last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was about 5.6 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 16% to 39% compared with the same period of last year.
The performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. In the fourth quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.32-2.32 billion, which is expected to increase by 39% – 145% month on month and 37% – 140% year-on-year. The total sales volume of the company in 2021 was 214.4w units, a year-on-year increase of + 4.92%; In the fourth quarter alone, the sales volume was 65.07w units, a year-on-year increase of + 2.21%. 11. In December, with the gradual recovery of chips, production and sales increased, with positive year-on-year growth. Among them, GAC Toyota, GAC independent passenger cars and ai’an new energy performed well. Among them, Toyota’s good sales volume has brought about a relative increase in investment benefits, while GAC’s independent high margin models such as GS4 and M8 have achieved a year-on-year increase in sales volume, and the optimization of product structure has brought about an increase in profit margin.
Guangfeng is expected to ride the dust in 2022. We expect GAC Toyota’s sales volume will usher in an inflection point. With the addition of a round of product cycle ushered in by GAC Toyota in China, GAC Toyota’s sales volume will continue to surpass the industry as a whole in the next two years and become one of the biggest winners in the era of fuel vehicle internal volume. Starting from the second half of 2021, Guangfeng will expand its product line with lingshang, senna, Weisa and fenglanda, which will expand Guangfeng’s product line to a new level. The average price of these four models is above the current average price of Guangfeng’s products, and the volume of new models will also make Guangfeng’s profit level reach a new level.
GAC ea’an and GAC motor will work together to continue to increase in 2022. GAC new energy e’an brand launched three new models of aion y, aion s plus and aion V Plus in 2021. The sales volume of TOC end increased steadily, realizing the sales of 12W units throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 101.8%. Aionlxplus was officially launched in early January 2022, with a range of 1008km. It got rid of the anxiety of endurance and brought a new increment in 2022. GAC motor brand: Shadow leopard positioning walking models to fill production capacity; GS4, gs8 and M8 are positioned as medium and high-end profitable models, optimize the product structure, take the 2022 product line to a new level and enter the rising channel.
Investment suggestion: gac-e\’an will perform well in 2021 and speed up the launch of new cars; The new car cycle of joint venture brands will also be higher next year. The new car cycle of independent and joint venture brands will become the revenue and performance elasticity of next year. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 2022 will be 7.1 billion yuan / 10 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 21 times / 15 times respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of the passenger car industry is lower than expected, the terminal discount rate is greater than expected, and the chip affects the automobile output
