\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030)
Event: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in the evening of January 12, 2022, the performance express said that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be 22.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, and the performance is slightly higher than our expectation.
Key investment points
The net profit attributable to the parent company reached a new high, and the balanced development of performance led to a high increase in roe: 1) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 54% year-on-year, reaching 22.979 billion yuan; In terms of absolute scale, it is expected to break through the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2015 (RMB 19.8 billion), reaching a new high in recent 10 years (2012 ~ 2021). 2) According to the calculation of performance express data, the operating revenue of the company in the fourth quarter (single quarter) is expected to be 18.758 billion yuan (year-on-year + 51.42%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.334 billion yuan (year-on-year + 137.96%). 3) In 2021, the market transaction continued to be high and favorable policies and other factors drove the balanced and steady development of the company’s investment banking, asset management and other businesses, driving the company’s roe to reach 11.76% in 2021 (the same period in 2020: 8.68%).
The high market boom drives the continuous development of wealth management, and the investment banking business continues to take the lead: 1) under the background of high market boom, the brokerage business is expected to continue to develop. In 2021, the average daily turnover of stock base in the market reached 1133.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 25%). We expect that under the background of rising market activity, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) brokerage business is expected to maintain a high growth trend (year-on-year + 27% in 2021q1 ~ 3). 2) The public offering transformation of Daji continues to be promoted, and Huaxia Fund is expected to continue to contribute wealth management dividends. According to wind statistics, as of December 31, 2021, the net asset value of Huaxia Fund reached 961.88 billion yuan (year-on-year + 25.03%), of which the net asset value of equity asset fund reached 376.73 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21%). We expect that as the equity market enters the golden age, the company will promote the transformation of large-scale public offering, and the asset management business is expected to continue to increase. 3) Under the background of multi-level capital market construction, the leading effect is prominent, and the scale of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) investment banking continues to lead. According to wind statistics, the underwriting scale of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) IPO in 2021 increased from + 91% to 85 billion yuan year-on-year, and the market share increased significantly to 15.7% (same period last year: 9.5%); The amount of bond underwriting increased by 20.0% year-on-year to 1561.4 billion yuan (the market share reached 13.74%); The refinancing scale remained stable (year-on-year + 0.2%) to 214 billion yuan, accounting for 22.3% of the market; The business scale of investment banking ranks first in the industry, and the leading advantage remains stable. With the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange and comprehensively promoting the reform of the registration system in 2022, we expect that CITIC, as a leading securities firm, is expected to fully benefit from the construction of the capital market and the development of direct financing, so as to further enhance its market influence.
The steady progress of share allotment is expected to enhance the company’s capital strength, and the institutional business is expected to be strong and strong. The Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) share allotment plan was approved by the development and Examination Commission on November 15 and approved by the CSRC on November 26, and the share allotment process was steadily promoted. We expect that after the completion of the allotment, the company’s capital will be further consolidated, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) as a leading securities firm, its professional ability is outstanding, and its institutional business is expected to become a new performance growth point.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the steady progress of the registration system and the continuous optimization of the capital market reform, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) as a leading securities firm, it is expected to seize the opportunity and the strong will be strong. We raised the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 19.5/245/31 billion yuan to 22.979/277.38/33.296 billion yuan in 2021-2023, corresponding to the adjustment of EPS from 1.51/1.89/2.39 yuan to 1.78/2.15/2.58 yuan in 2021-2023, The current market value corresponds to P / B1 from 2021 to 2023 62 / 1.41/1.32x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) market transaction activity decreases; 2) Stock market fluctuations impact proprietary investment returns. 3) Stricter supervision inhibits the development of innovative business.
