\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Event overview
The company issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021: the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to be 1050 million yuan – 1150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67% – 83%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company to be 1005 million yuan – 1105 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75% – 92%.
Analysis and judgment:
Q4 performance is relatively high, with tier0 The volume and price of level 5 supporting facilities increased simultaneously
In 2021q1-q3, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company was + 116.4% / + 108.9% / + 71.3% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company was + 122.9% / + 127.0% / + 77.4% respectively. The performance in 2021q4 maintained a high growth rate: 1) if the lower limit of performance forecast is reached, the net profit attributable to parent company in 2021q4 will reach 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.8%, a month on month increase of + 0.7%, and the net profit deducted from non parent company will be 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.4%, a month on month increase of – 4.2%; 2) If the upper limit of performance forecast is reached, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 400 million in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 64.3%, a month on month increase of + 34.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted by RMB 370 million, a year-on-year increase of + 74.0%, a month on month increase of + 30.8%. We judge that the performance is above the center, and the high growth of performance mainly benefits from the company’s active embrace of new energy, continuous expansion of electric intelligence related product lines, active expansion of global intelligent electric customer base and exploration of tier0 Level 5 supporting mode, showing the trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price.
Shuangwei Qiqu Jianzhi global auto parts top
Customer +: strategically bind Tesla and the new forces of car manufacturing to enter the global supply system. The company has grown with GM and Geely. At present, Tesla is strategically bound to start a new round of growth. At the same time, it has entered the global supply systems such as Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota. In line with the change of Electric Intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car making to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode to provide customers with synchronous R & D and supply services of the whole product line.
Product +: “2 + 3” industrial strategy, comprehensive layout of electric intelligence. While maintaining China’s leading position in the two traditional businesses of vehicle NVH damping system and vehicle acoustic package, the company has prospectively arranged the three core businesses of vehicle intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system, including: 1) lightweight and high growth: the company’s aluminum alloy lightweight chassis technology is leading in China, and a perfect layout of aluminum alloy + high-strength steel has been formed after the acquisition of fudona, At present, it has entered Tesla, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) , BAIC, great wall, Weilai, Weima and other supply chains. The aluminum alloy integrated vacuum casting chassis was approved by customers and began to be supplied in batches. The aluminum alloy casting welded chassis was approved by Ford, rivian and other customers and began to prepare for batch supply. 2) Intelligent driving system is waiting for force: the orders of electronic vacuum pump EVP are increasing rapidly, which is expected to gradually contribute significant increment; At present, the intelligent braking system IBS has been iterated to the fourth generation dual redundancy scheme for automatic driving above L4 level. It carries out road test on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile and other models. At the same time, it also cooperates with famous foreign enterprises to carry out R & D and promotion in the field of electric logistics vehicles; The intelligent steering system is being promoted to many main engine manufacturers including Volkswagen. Intelligent cabin products such as electric adjustable steering column, electric tailgate and seat massage system have been released and received formal orders from customers. 3) Future prospects of new energy vehicle thermal management system: the company has successfully developed heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve, electronic water pump, gas-liquid separator and other products, and is increasing market development and R & D investment, aiming to become an overall scheme supplier of new energy vehicle thermal management system.
Investment advice
The company is the high performance elastic target of Tesla industrial chain and the most beneficial target of Geely industrial chain. With the industry-leading ability of customer expansion and product expansion, the company is expected to rise and become the leader of independent parts under the reform of electric intelligence. In view of the growth of the company’s performance repair and lightweight, intelligent driving system and thermal management system with key customers such as Tesla and Geely, and taking into account the impact of core shortage and rising prices of raw materials, we adjusted the profit forecast: we lowered the forecast of revenue of RMB 11.31/159.5/20.74 billion from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 11.22/153.4/19.95 billion, The forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.17/18.4/2.32 billion was lowered to RMB 1.13/17.3/2.22 billion, and eps1.3 was lowered The forecast of 06 / 1.67/2.10 is 1.03/1.57/2.01 yuan, corresponding to pe53 / 34 / 27 times of the closing price of 54.27 yuan on January 12, 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Tesla’s sales volume is lower than expected; Geely’s sales volume recovered less than expected; Increased competition; Rising raw material costs, etc.
