\u3000\u3000 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) (002960)
Performance meets expectations; Revenue center + 57%, net profit center + 21%, deduct non net profit center + 36%
Announcement of pre increase of the company's performance: the revenue in 2021 will be 3.7-4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47% ~ 66%; The net profit was 490 ~ 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% ~ 29%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 480 ~ 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 27 ~ 45%. The lower growth rate of net profit than that of revenue is due to the amortization of equity incentive expenses and the increase of wages and salaries of new employees. In 2021, Q4's revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%; The net profit was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Q4 net interest rate was 10.6%, down about 2pct year-on-year.
The general fire fighting business is an endogenous extension of two wheel drive. It is expected that the Chinese market share will increase by 3PCT in 2021
In 2021, Qingniao brand and Jiuyuan brand in the field of general fire protection achieved rapid growth compared with the same period last year; According to our calculation, the market share of general fire fighting companies in China has increased from 10% in 2021 to 13%. Main reasons: 1) the clearing speed of the industry exceeded expectations, and the market share accelerated to concentrate on leading enterprises; 2) In the face of chip shortage in the whole industry, the company develops its own chips to ensure product delivery; The integration with finsecur in France is smooth, and its sales have increased rapidly year-on-year. Overseas has formed a multi brand matrix of "maplearmor" in Canada + finsecur "in France + detnov" in Spain + MPOWER in the United States, with steady progress in internationalization.
Emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation business grew by more than 200% year-on-year, and the contribution of left-hand lighting to the consolidated statement increased. In 2021, the orders and shipments of emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation business continued to grow explosively, and the revenue increased by more than 200% year-on-year,; Left lighting contributed some growth after consolidation in the fourth quarter; Emergency lighting and evacuation have formed multi brand matrices such as " Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ", "left lighting" and "Zhongke Zhichuang".
Industrial fire protection has achieved breakthroughs in the fields of iron and steel, petrochemical, metallurgy and rail transit; Energy storage and fire protection obtained orders, and the company achieved 0-1 breakthrough in industrial fire protection fields such as iron and steel, petrochemical, metallurgy and rail transportation; At the same time, we have continued to promote the application of automatic fire alarm and gas fire extinguishing products in energy storage power stations, and have won the bid for energy storage container gas fire extinguishing system project, an energy storage substation project in Texas, USA, Huagong intelligent energy storage sample box and other projects.
The strategy of "Troika + two new stars" has blossomed at many points, and the revenue target of 5 billion yuan is expected to be achieved in advance. The "troika" with general fire alarm (including overseas), emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation and industrial fire control as the core and the "3 + 2" business framework of "two new stars" with intelligent fire control and household fire control as the core have become a reality. As the market share of general fire protection has increased to 13% in 2021, which exceeds our expectation. It is expected that the company will strive to achieve a revenue target of more than 5 billion yuan by 2023, which is expected to be achieved in advance.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be RMB 520 / 720 / 930 million, with a year-on-year increase of 21% / 38% / 28% and PE of 31 / 22 / 17 times. We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company's market share in the civil market, the strength of import substitution in the industrial market, and the development potential of energy storage fire fighting and intelligent fire fighting. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) gross profit margin declines due to intensified industry competition; 2) Higher receivables may lead to bad debts
