\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 6.6 billion yuan to 7.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11% ~ 27%. Net profit after deduction from non parent company was RMB 5.6 billion to RMB 6.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16% ~ 39%.
Analysis and judgment:
The combination of production and marketing boom and bulk decline has a bright Q4 performance
Q4 performance exceeded expectations, and the median net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.574 billion yuan. Combined with the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was RMB 1.316 ~ 2.316 billion, with a median of RMB 1.816 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 88.4% and a month on month increase of + 91.8%; The net profit deducted from non parent company in Q4 was RMB 1.024 ~ 2.124 billion, with a median value of RMB 1.574 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 255.1% and a month on month increase of + 196.1%.
The booming production and marketing combined with the decline of bulk prices made the company's Q4 performance bright. The automobile production / sales of Q4 company were 694400 and 650700 respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 57.02% and + 39.26% respectively. In the face of core shortage, the company responded quickly and better guaranteed the supply by signing a supply guarantee agreement with suppliers, driving the improvement of "quantity". In addition, the company prospectively arranged the field of domestic chips, and GAC capital actively arranged chips such as Yuexin semiconductor, horizon and chenjing technology, so as to strengthen the independent control of the supply chain. On the cost side, Q3 has largely risen to a phased high. The main raw materials of automobile steel rolling, aluminum and copper are at a high point in 2021. Q4 has a marginal decline. The average price of cold-rolled ordinary sheet and aluminum has decreased by 6.9% and 6.1% respectively compared with Q3, contributing to the profit increment from the cost side. We expect the core shortage to be further alleviated and the bulk margin to fall, and the company's performance is expected to be further boosted.
The share of the joint venture is stable, and the annual sales volume is doubled
The share of the joint venture remained stable and continued to be in the top camp. The company's main joint ventures guangben and Guangfeng sold 780300 and 828000 vehicles respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.17% and + 8.23% respectively. According to our calculation, the shares of guangben and Guangfeng China from January to November 2021 were 3.75% and 3.90% respectively, down 0.35pct and 0.01pct respectively compared with the whole year of 2020. Considering that the joint venture vehicles are more affected by the lack of core, the share of the company's Japanese joint venture fluctuates only slightly, showing toughness.
The sales volume of new energy increased significantly, and gac-e'an doubled. In 2021, the company's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 142853, a year-on-year increase of + 77.35%. High end intelligent electric brand ea'an grew rapidly. In December 2021, ea'an delivered 16675 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119% and a month on month increase of + 14.5%. The annual delivery volume reached 124000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119%. The steady-state monthly sales of core models aions and aiony have risen to more than 7000 and 5000. The new model aionlxplus was officially launched on January 5 this year. Using the sponge silicon negative electrode battery technology developed by the company, it has become the world's first mass-produced pure electric vehicle with a endurance of more than 1000km, with a price of 286600 yuan ~ 459600 yuan, of which the price of Qianli version is 459600 yuan. We believe that the introduction of new cars will further improve the high-end layout of the brand. At the same time, the endurance of more than 1000 kilometers has obvious competitive advantages and the sales prospect is optimistic.
Adverse factors affect the weakening of force hybrid + intelligent dual core drive
In 2021, under the multiple adverse factors of industry core shortage, epidemic and bulk rise, the company's net profit bucked the trend and showed resilience. Looking forward to 2022, the margin of adverse factors will weaken. We expect the company to accelerate the realization of profits under the conditions of Japanese joint venture replenishment, GAC motor's new product period and the rapid growth of ai'an:
Honda and Toyota's core shortage has improved significantly. In December 2021, the output was + 7.7% and + 21.7% month on month, respectively. It is expected to gradually establish inventory; GAC motor's new second-generation gs8 was officially launched last month, with an order of more than 20000 units in 18 days. Driven by "hybrid + intelligent" dual core, GAC motor aims to realize the hybrid of all models by 2025; The product strength of ai\'an continues to be verified. The maximum endurance of the new model aionlxplus exceeds 1000km. While improving the product matrix, it accelerates the high-end layout.
Investment advice
As a leading Japanese joint venture brand, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of demand for replacement and additional purchase; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. Ai\'an's product strength has been continuously verified, breaking through the bottleneck of pure electric endurance and completing the high-end layout. Update the company's profit forecast. The revenue in 2021-2022 is adjusted from 78.90/84.5 billion yuan to 75.29/86.26 billion yuan, and the revenue forecast in 2023 is increased by 98.1 billion yuan. Based on the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is adjusted to 7.37 billion yuan, the forecast in 2022-2023 is 9.98/11.76 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.71/0.96/1.14 yuan, and the closing price of A-Shares is 15.18 yuan / share on January 12, 2022, PE was 21.32/15.74/13.36 times, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company's a shares.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
