\u3000\u3000 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128)
Key investment points
It is predicted that the profit in the 21st year will be 822-902 million yuan, of which Q4 contributes 152-232 million yuan
Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of direct customers, the extension of service chain and the extension increment of emerging business formats, and deepening the implementation of the two wheel drive strategy of marketing and science and technology, the company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 822-902 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 55% - 70%; Deduct the net profit of non parent company of RMB 801-878 million, with a year-on-year increase of 55% - 70%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 152-232 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 83%.
International air and sea freight forwarders are basically consolidated, and cross-border e-commerce logistics shapes the second growth pole
In terms of the basic industry of international freight forwarding, the company has outstanding advantages in volume scale, resource integration and customer structure, and constructs core barriers; In terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics business, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce export logistics track increased by 22.5% at a compound growth rate of 21e-25e. Combined with the company's positive extension expansion rhythm and excellent post merger management, it was able to deeply cut into emerging tracks to obtain service quality and relatively high premium dividends in the performance chain.
The logistics sector of central enterprises has integrated resources, and the strategic position of cross-border core assets with sufficient market incentives is prominent. China Logistics Group has been officially established at the end of 2021. It is integrated by three logistics companies, including Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) under the former tiewu group and Chengtong Group. The SASAC of the state Council and Chengtong Group hold 38.9% respectively, and China Eastern Airlines Group The three strategic investors of COSCO Shipping Group and China Merchants Group hold 10%, 7.3% and 4.9% respectively, holding 45.8% equity of Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) . Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) as the only entity operating cross-border comprehensive logistics in the listed platforms of the two groups, it is the core asset to escort the upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing industry to the sea. It has sufficient market-oriented incentive mechanism and endogenous initiative. It is expected to superimpose the empowerment of the three strategic investors and highlight the status of cross-border logistics core assets.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 869 million, RMB 1066 million and RMB 1221 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63.8%, 22.7% and 14.6% respectively. Considering that the company, as a central enterprise giant of China's cross-border comprehensive logistics track, has a solid freight forwarding base and broad new business space for cross-border e-commerce logistics, it is expected to benefit from the national strategic integration of the central enterprise platform of modern logistics industry and maintain the "overweight" rating in the future.
Risk warning: the price of international cargo transportation fluctuates greatly; Cross border e-commerce consumer demand fell; Impairment of goodwill in M & A
