\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Key points of announcement: the company issued a pre increase announcement of performance in 2021, which is slightly lower than our expectation. In 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.05 ~ 1.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 67% ~ 83%, and deduct a net profit not attributable to the parent of RMB 1.005 ~ 1.105 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 75% ~ 92%. In Q4 of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 297 ~ 397 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 23% ~ + 65% and a month on month increase of + 1% ~ + 35%. The net profit not attributable to the parent company was 274 ~ 374 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 27% ~ + 74% and a month on month decrease of - 4% ~ + 31%.
Chip mitigation boosted the output growth of core customers in the fourth quarter, and the large volume of new business promoted the same / month on month growth of performance. 1) According to the data of the passenger Association, among the top three core customers of Q4 company in 2021, t customer completed the output of 179000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 170.4% and a month on month increase of + 38.9%, and the annual output of 486000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 222.1%; SAIC GM 2021q4 completed an output of 421000 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 32.6%; Geely Automobile 2021q4 completed an output of 406000 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 42.4%. 2) The company added automobile thermal management business in 2021. With the rapid production of supporting customers, the company's performance increased rapidly year-on-year.
Continue to promote new project R & D and capacity layout, tier0 5. The mode is gradually recognized by intelligent electric vehicle enterprises: 1) the company continues to promote the R & D and verification of integrated heat pump assembly version 2.0; 2) Intelligent braking system and steering system are stepping up verification and matching; 3) The first air suspension unit has been officially completed, with a supporting capacity of 500000 sets / year, and will be put into operation in mid-2022; 4) The company speeds up the production capacity layout in China / abroad. China: five suspension systems + nine chassis of Xiangtan base and eight chassis of Hangzhou Bay base are officially completed. Chongqing new energy auto parts production base is planned to be put into construction by stages. Abroad: increase investment in Poland and speed up production capacity construction. 5) The company uses the advantages of many product lines to promote tier0 5. The business model has gradually been recognized by a number of intelligent electric vehicle enterprises, and the value of the supporting bicycle in cooperation with rivian has reached 11000 yuan. 5) The adverse factors of the industry are gradually alleviated + the key models are rapidly expanded. Starting from Q4 in 2021, the supply shortage of chips in the industry has been gradually solved and entered a tight balance state. With the addition of batch supply of new products from Ford, rivian and other new customers, it is expected that the company's revenue and profit will continue to maintain rapid growth and further release its performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the performance impact caused by the shortage of chips and the rise of raw material prices this year, we adjusted the company's revenue forecast from 2021 to 2023 from RMB 10.812/146.97/19.608 billion to RMB 10.945/151.49/20.646 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 68.1% / + 38.4% / + 36.3% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from RMB 1.127/16.16/2.273 billion to RMB 1.100/16.32/2.343 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 75.1% / + 48.4% / + 43.6% respectively. The corresponding EPS is 1.00/1.48/2.13 yuan and the corresponding PE is 54.36/36.64/25.52 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; The penetration growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, and the shortage of chips exceeded expectations.
